What moves stock prices
Source: Brian Feroldi
Forward S&P 500 Performance by VIX Decile
While a low VIX indicates that investors are complacent and signal that unexpected negative events could push the VIX upwards (and thus equity markets downward), a low VIX reading isn’t necessarily something to fear. As shown on this chart courtesy of Todd Sohn, it is a typical characteristic of bull markets. Source: J-C Parets
$LVMH Q2 2023
"Thanks to the desirability of our brands, we approach the second half of the year with confidence and optimism" - Bernard Arnault Organic Growth by Business Group - source: Quartr
LVMH, the world's top luxury group, said Tuesday it enjoyed an excellent first half with net profits soaring by 30 percent to 8.48 billion euros thanks to strong growth in Asia and Europe.
Sales at the group whose brands include Louis Vuitton, Dior and Tiffany, rose 15 percent during the January-June period compared with last year, to hit 42.2 billion euros. ONE BUG SURPRISE -> LVMH reported a surprising drop in U.S. sales in the second quarter, as its chief financial officer said “aspirational customers are not shopping as much as they used to.“ LVMH’s U.S. sales slid 1% in the second quarter from the prior-year period. The disappointing results in the U.S. market came after Cartier owner Richemont earlier this month reported a 4% decline in U.S. sales. Richemont shares fell 10% on the news, pressuring other luxury stocks throughout the week as analysts braced for a potential U.S. luxury slowdown. Here are the details by App Economic Insights - LVMH Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy H1 FY23 Revenue +15% Y/Y to $42.2B. Wines & Spirits -4% to €3.2B. Fashion & Leather goods +17% to €21.1B. Perfumes & Cosmetics +11% to €4.0B. Watches & Jewelry +11% to €5.4B. Selective retailers & other +26% to €8.4B. Source: App Economy Insights, Barron's, CNBC
Barron's insider ratio has turned bearish. What do they know that retail investors don't?
(This is the ratio of insiders sales to buys - readings under 12:1 are bullish. Those over 20:1 are bearish) Source Chart: Barrons
The last time The Dow had a longer winning streak than this (12 straight days) was in Jan 1987 (13 days - the all-time record win streak)...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Alphabet shares rose about 7% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, driven by growth in its cloud-computing unit.
For the fourth straight quarter, Google’s parent company reported growth in the single digits as it reckons with a pullback in digital ad spending that reflects concerns about the economy. Analysts don’t expect growth to hit double digits again until the fourth quarter. $GOOG Alphabet Q2 FY23 details by App Economy Insights • Revenue +7% Y/Y to $74.6B ($1.8B beat) • Operating margin 29% (+1pp Y/Y) • EPS $1.44 ($0.10 beat) ☁️ Google Cloud: • Revenue +28% Y/Y to $8.0B. • Operating margin 5% (+14pp Y/Y). ▶️ YouTube ads +4% to $7.7B. Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
When it comes to the rush into AI stocks, these 2 charts are not easy to interpret from a contrarian perspective
On one hand, record inflows into AI etfs could mean there is too much "hot money" = BEARISH from a contrarian perspective. On the other hand, shorts continue to accumulate positions betting on a collapse of AI-related mega-caps tech stocks. This is BULLISH from a contrarian perspective. Source chart: JPM, TME
