Given the expensive level of stocks valuations (especially tech), there is little room left for bad news
Valuation ratios are bad timing tools but help assessing the downside potential. Source: Charlie Bilello
CTAs are long net $58BN in US equities, just shy of the upper-end of the 5-year range
Could they trigger an acceleration of the equity sell-off if the S&P 500 breaks some key support level? Here are the key levels to watch according to GS: Short-term threshold = 4440 (-1.6%) Medium-term threshold (the most important one) = 4257 (-5.6%) Long-term threshold = 4240 (-6.1%) Source: Goldman
Bonds and equities re-correlate...The recent acceleration in yields appears to have had an effect on long-duration risk-assets...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Amazon reported second-quarter earnings on Thursday that sailed past analysts’ estimates and issued guidance that points to accelerating revenue growth
The stock rose more than 10% in extended trading. AMZN Amazon Q2 FY23: • Revenue +11% Y/Y to $134.3B ($3B beat). • Operating margin 6% (+3pp Y/Y). • FCF $7.9B TTM. • EPS $0.65. AWS: • Revenue +12% Y/Y to $22.1B. • Operating margin 24% (-4pp Y/Y). Q3 FY23 Guidance: • Revenue ~$140B ($2B beat). Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
Robinhood now makes much more collecting interest on client cash than from its core business.
This is $234 million that RH's customers should be collecting but they are currently handling to the Trading App. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Robinhood
Do US cyclical equities look vulnerable given the extent of growth optimism currently priced in vs. the weakness of ISM manufacturing?
Source chart: Goldman
Treasuries haven’t been this ineffective as a stock hedge since the 1990s. The one-month correlation between the two assets is now at its highest reading since 1996
Source: Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg
Global Manufacturing PMIs and Global stocks seem to be in disagreement...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
