Monday was the worst day of the year for the S&P 500 at -2.7%.
It turns out even the best years usually have a bad day. @Ryan Detrick found 22 times >20% for the year and the average worst day in those years was -3.5%. 1997 had a 6.9% worst day and still gained 31% for the year in fact. Source: Carson
HolgerZ:
"US President Donald Trump is dealing a lasting blow to confidence in the US, its products, and its stock markets. US exceptionalism is under threat from uncertainties about Trump’s political and economic policies" Source: Bloomberg
The art of a deal???
Source: Factset, Michel A.Arouet
‼️ BREAKING: EU EQUITIES UNDER PRESSURE ‼️
Germany's Greens won't support draft debt package in parliament. The CDU/CSU and SPD need the support of the Greens to achieve the two-thirds majority in the Bundestag in its old composition. The FDP, which was represented in the old Bundestag, will hardly vote in favor of such a debt package. Source: HolgerZ, DB
Market VOLATILITY is back:
The S&P 500 has seen a move of more than 1% in either direction for 6 straight trading sessions, the longest streak since November 2020. Source: Bloomberg
Is there a world where we revisit the COVID low trendline support in 2025?
Hard to imagine, but not impossible... 😶 $SPY Source: Trend Spider
Equity markets are fearful of far more than some marginal tariff tensions.
Macro data this week broadly speaking reinforced the growth scare (red line below) while inflation anxiety is back way up... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
S&P 500 PULLBACK
If the current pullback is going to devolve into a correction, it should happen relatively quickly. Historically, 76% of S&P 500 corrections play out w/i a 60-day window (mid-April). About half are done in <40 days (late-March). Source: 3F Research Group, Warren Pies @WarrenPies on X
