S&P500 $SPX has surged right into the upper trend line in place since last autumn.
The perceived bull has been stronger than the actual bull in recent sessions. We’ve gone from undershooting to aggressively overshooting the 200-day MA, in a very one-directional move. Source: TME
If you invested $10,000 in $CAR on Wednesday, Thursday night you would have $2,900 left...
Source: Brew markets
TESLA $TSLA JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $0.41 beating expectations of $0.34 Revenue of $22.4B missing expectations of $22.64 Tesla says Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026 Once in production, expect Cybercab to begin to replace existing Model Y fleet and will be largest volume vehicle in fleet over time Preparations for first large-scale Optimus factory will begin in Q2 Are expanding scope of manufacturing to include semiconductor fabrication in AI inference compute Source: Evan on X
In case you missed it... Avis Budget Group $CAR crashed 50% in just 6 hours.
After rallying 750% in the last 35 days, the stock has now erased roughly 57% of that entire run in a single selloff. $CAR went from one of the biggest squeezes of 2026 to one of the fastest reversals, showing how quickly crowded trades can unwind once momentum breaks. Source: Bull Theory
Markets don't seem to care that much about all these prices going to the roof...
Source: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 12 month forward earnings are going to the roof...
Below, an interesting Bloomberg chart showing the difference between forward 12 months EPS estimates and trailing 12 month EPS Source: Bloomberg
SocGen notes that Tech has one of the lowest PEGs..
Source. SocGen
Avis Budget Group ($CAR) could experience another extreme short squeeze similar to 2021, when the stock surged 722% in 41 days before collapsing 54% in a week.
Fast forward to 2026 and $CAR - Avis Budget - is up 656% in a month!!! The US government shut down. Airport security workers stopped getting paid. Thousands quit. 4-hour queues. Passengers abandoned flights. Road trips surged. Add a massive short squeeze and you get a 600% move. So what's going on? ---------- In 2021, the surge was driven not by fundamentals but by market positioning. At the time, Avis was heavily shorted because many investors viewed it as weaker than Hertz—citing valuation concerns, exposure to used car price volatility, and a less attractive balance sheet. Meanwhile, a popular hedge fund strategy involved a pair trade: long Hertz (fresh out of bankruptcy with an EV narrative) and short Avis. This created a crowded short position. The situation reversed when Avis delivered a strong earnings surprise and broader industry news (including Hertz-related developments) disrupted expectations. As the stock price rose, short sellers faced mounting losses, margin pressure, and forced liquidations. Since closing a short requires buying the stock, this triggered a feedback loop: rising prices forced more short covering, which pushed prices even higher. This self-reinforcing cycle—not fundamentals—drove the explosive rally. Once most shorts had exited and buying pressure faded, the stock rapidly collapsed. Today’s conditions—crowded positioning, limited float, and market structure—mirror that setup. If similar dynamics unfold, prices could again detach from fundamentals and rise sharply due to forced buying rather than intrinsic value. Source: Bull Theory
