Global stocks lost $12 trillion in March, the single-largest value wipeout on record in a single month
(≠ to worst month on record; that's still Oct 2008, just that now the market is much much bigger) Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles @DavidInglesTV
In considering Tuesday's rally, don't forget that the quarter-end pension rebalance was estimated by Goldman at $34bn, the 8th largest since 2000 and a top 10 buy imbalance in history.
$34bn to buy in equities ranks in the 94th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years and in the 96th percentile going back to Jan 2000. Source: Neil Sethi on X, Goldman Sachs
Since Exxon was kicked out of the Dow Jones "Industrial" Average and replaced by Salesforce in August 2020, Exxon is up 325%. Salesforce is down 32%
Source: zerohedge
Strong earnings with multiple contraction. That’s 2026 in a nutshell.
Source: @mattcerminaro Daily Chartbook
Could we see more pain?
Yes, on the surface, the S&P 500 looks nearly oversold, but underneath, the situation looks different with only 11% of SPX constituents being oversold. Source: TME, Bloomberg, GS
The sp500 technical picture remains pretty much the same: not pretty
We’re now well below the 200-day, with the 21-day crossing below it, a “light” death cross. RSI is at its most oversold levels since the Liberation Day panic, so a bounce is possible. But beware of the "catching a falling knife" strategy - very often a risky one. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Midterm years have been notoriously weak for the stock market. But year three of the Presidential cycle has been extremely strong…
Source: Bespoke
Institutional investors are dumping US equities at a massive pace:
Investors sold -$9.3 billion in US equities last week, bringing the 6-week total to -$13.5 billion. This comes as sales of single stocks surged to -$8.3 billion, the 4th-largest since the Great Financial Crisis. Institutional investors led with -$11 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, retail investors remained sellers for a 2nd consecutive week. Hedge funds returned to buying at +$1.8 billion, but they have sold -$4.9 billion over the last 4 weeks. Professional investors are running to the exit. Source: Global Markets Investor
