Hedge funds are shorting the US stock market at the highest level since 2021.
Short exposure to US equity index and ETF products just hit 13% of total gross exposure. It is nearly double where it was before COVID and the highest reading in 5 years. The S&P 500 is near all time highs. Bond yields are at 2007 levels. And Japan's bond market is cracking. Korean retail investors are borrowing record amounts to chase stocks higher. Retail is buying and Hedge funds are shorting. One of them is about to be very wrong. Chart: Bull Theory on X
What a journey for the Nasdaq 100...
If you had invested $10,000 in the Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ at the PEAK of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, your investment would be worth around $61,650 today — a gain of +516%, or +7.2% annualised. And that’s despite navigating through 9/11, the 2001–2002 recession, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and major geopolitical conflicts including Russia-Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. As Warren Buffett famously said: “Never bet against America.” Source chart: Rand Group
Samsung and SK Hynix now account for ~13% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the benchmark for more than $1 TRILLION in assets under management.
SK Hynix alone now commands a weighting equivalent to Tencent and Alibaba combined, after more than doubling in market value this year. Together with TSMC, the 3 chipmakers account for more than 25% of the entire index and have contributed over 70% of its gains so far in 2026. This is reminiscent of late 2020, when Chinese companies accounted for more than 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. When Chinese stocks peaked in February 2021 and subsequently collapsed, the broader EM index entered a 15-16 month bear market, falling ~50% from peak to trough. Even emerging market indexes are extremely concentrated. Source: Global markets Investors, Bloomberg Opinion
History has been kind to Fed Chairs in their first year. Besides Greenspan, who got handed Black Monday...
Source: TrendSpider
Another "K-shaped economy" chart
Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
When rates start to matter... NASDAQ versus inverse US 10-year yields remains one of the biggest macro dislocation charts out there.
Let's keep in mind that bond volatility is exploding higher JUST AS hyperscalers enter the most capital-intensive spending cycle in modern tech history. Source: The Market Ear
SOX cracks...
The semiconductors index SOX is printing its biggest downside candle since the melt-up began. The index is now breaking below the steep trend line while slipping under the 8 day moving average. The 21 day sits lower (next meaningful support), while the 50 day remains far below current levels. Source: TME, LSEG
The momentum trade is VERY extended.
See below great chart from Alpine Macro showing that Momentum stocks (dominated by semis) have basically had a vertical rally relative to minimum volatility stocks (think defensives like staples, utilities). Markets don’t like big straight-line moves like that. It’s not something that persists. Source: TME
