$MSFT FY Q1 2024 in perspective
Revenue +13% *Prod. & Business +13% *Intelligent Cloud +19% *Pers. Computing +3% *Azure +29% *LinkedIn +8% *Xbox C&S +13% EBIT +25% *marg 48% (43) EPS +27% Source: Quartr
Cloud growth is all what matters to the market these days
Unlike Alphabet/Google, Microsoft shares jumped as much as 6% in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker issued fiscal first-quarter results and quarterly revenue guidance that beat Wall Street estimates. Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment produced $24.26 billion in revenue, up 19% and above the $23.49 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. The unit comprises the Azure public cloud, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, Nuance, GitHub and enterprise services. The firm also reported a surge in profit due to a slower pace of operating expense growth. In a nutshell: $MSFT Microsoft Q1 FY24 (ending in Sept): • Revenue +13% Y/Y to $56.5B ($1.95B beat). • Gross margin 71% (+2pp Y/Y) • Operating margin 48% (+5pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.99 ($0.34 beat). ☁️ Azure +28% fx neutral. Reaccelerating from +27% in Q4 FY23 Source: App Economy Insights
Alphabet reported 11% revenue growth in the third quarter, as a rebound in advertising pushed expansion into double digits for the first time in over a year
The shares dropped almost 7% in extended trading as the cloud business missed analysts’ estimates. In a nutshell: $GOOG Alphabet Q3 FY23: • Revenue +11% Y/Y to $76.7B ($1.0B beat) • Operating margin 28% (+3pp Y/Y) • EPS $1.55 ($0.10 beat) Google Cloud: • Revenue +22% Y/Y to $8.4B. • Operating margin 3% (+13pp Y/Y). Source: App Economy Insights
Equities tend to sell off with bonds when interest rates rise beyond 5%
Source: GS, TME (European equities in this case)
CTAs are running equity shorts, global as well as US
Source: TME, GS
We have not seen NASDAQ move lower with $BTC exploding to the upside in a long time
Source: TME, Refinitiv
It’s not a disconnect between macro view and S&P 500, it’s simply Mag7 euphoria driving the divergence
S&P 493 is valued more in line with macro expectations. Source: BofA, Michel A.Arouet
Tweet by Lyn Alden -> "Egypt is currently dealing with a sovereign debt crisis. Multiple ratings downgrades, currency devaluation, working with the IMF, etc.
So, people buy stocks. The stocks are not doing well in dollar terms, but they're doing fine nominally.
