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VIX seasonality suggest some volatile months ahead for stocks
Vix Seasonality
Saudi Aramco 2Q 2023 profit vs. profits of the Majors
Source: company results
Tavi Costa: "Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments, marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis
Net inflows from international investors over the past 50 days have reached historically elevated levels, maintaining a consistent upward trajectory over the last two years". Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Is stocks leadership vs. commodities starting to roll over?
Source: J-C Parets
Given the expensive level of stocks valuations (especially tech), there is little room left for bad news
Valuation ratios are bad timing tools but help assessing the downside potential. Source: Charlie Bilello
CTAs are long net $58BN in US equities, just shy of the upper-end of the 5-year range
Could they trigger an acceleration of the equity sell-off if the S&P 500 breaks some key support level? Here are the key levels to watch according to GS: Short-term threshold = 4440 (-1.6%) Medium-term threshold (the most important one) = 4257 (-5.6%) Long-term threshold = 4240 (-6.1%) Source: Goldman
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