One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here
As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negative… With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets.
Correlation between Equity and Bond returns
Source: BlackRock, Ayesha Tariq, CFA
Chinese stocks are trading near all-time lows relative to GDP, while US stocks are trading near all-time highs relative to GDP
Perhaps for good reason... but that's a massive spread. Source: Swordfishvegetable
Mark Zuckerberg sold nearly half a billion dollars of Meta shares in the final two months of 2023 after a 2y hiatus in which the company’s stock price hit its lowest in seven years
The Meta CEO sold shares on every trading day between Nov. 1 and the end of the year, unloading nearly 1.28mln shares for ~$428mln. On average, each sale took in $10.4mln. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Fidelity marks down X valuation by 71.5%
Source: Win Smart, CFA
Investing in stocks is one of the best options available to protect your wealth against money debasement
Over time, the purchasing power of the dollar declines, while the stock market increases. That means you need more dollars to buy the same things. If you want to protect your purchasing power, invest in stocks for the long run. Source: Charlie Bilello thru Peter Mallouk
Zombie firms as a % of Russell 3000 is now back to Dot Com bubble levels
Source: Game of Trades
Asset Class Returns since 2011...
Source: Charlie Bilello
