Nasdaq $QQQ has now fully recovered from the losses sustained after Liberation Day
Source: Barchart
The S&P 500 just formed a bullish hammer pattern on the monthly chart 🚀
▶️ What is a bullish hammer? "The hammer candlestick is a bullish trading pattern that suggests a stock/index has found its bottom and is poised for a trend reversal. It means that sellers entered the market and drove the price down but were eventually outnumbered by purchasers, who drove the asset price up". Source: Barchart
If you'd taken the month of April off, you'd never know the world faced an existential crisis (the end of US exceptionalism etc...)
It is indeed hard to believe but the $QQQ Nasdaq 100 ended the month in the green and tagged its 50 day moving average... April has been a rollercoaster ride for traders: a 16% peak to trough drawdown in the first week of the month, followed by a ~18% rally the last few weeks… only to ‘fail’ at the 50-dma yesterday. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
As we head into May, a big question for markets is of course whether the US is on a path to a recession or not.
On the positive side, we have not seen a meaningfully consistent erosion of activity yet. Hard data have been doing ok, earnings are resilient, spreads are tightening again, etc. On the negative side, US has not spiked its tariffs this high since the 1940s. It is thus not an easy question to answer. And as shown by the table below by Goldman, market's ability to predict a recession is not that good... It is actually a toss coin Source: zerohedge
Before you Sell in May, just remember this month has been higher 9 of the past 10 years.
Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
Global stocks are close to reversing all post "Liberation Day" losses
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
Only European Investors have been dumping U.S. Stocks 🚨
The rest of the world, including China, are buying 📈📈 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, EPFR
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year.
This probably assumes no recession, because if there is one, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates is likely. Source. Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
