The average drawdown in the first 6 months of a new Fed Chair is 15%.
The market likes to test them... Source: NDR, RBC
Markets in Asia are getting shredded on Monday.
Indonesia and Korea down over 5% each; commodities tossed out the window Source: David Ingles
Gold vs S&P total return.
A rock has outperformed the collective genius of the US capital markets by more than 100% Source: zerohedge
$MSFT with a strong double beat in Q4. The stock is down 6% despite the strong results due to heavy spending.
Microsoft delivered impressive headline numbers, with revenue jumping 17% to $81.3 billion and Azure cloud growth accelerating to 39%, driven by fierce AI demand. The Intelligent Cloud segment is now a massive engine, crossing $32.9 billion in sales. However, capital expenditure nearly doubled to ~$30 billion, raising fears about cash burn. Second, the massive 60% profit jump can be misleading as it includes a $7.6 billion paper gain from the OpenAI investment. Stripping that out, real profit growth was much lower, leaving investors worried that the costs of the AI boom are rising faster than the immediate cash returns. 🔹 EPS: $4.14 vs. $3.91 est. ✅ 🔹 Revenue: $81.27B vs. $80.31B est. ✅ Key takeaways: 🔸 Intelligent Cloud rev: +29% YoY 🔸 Productivity rev: +16% YoY 🔸 Computing rev: -3% YoY 🔸 MSFT Cloud rev: +26% YoY 🔸 Azure/Cloud: +39% YoY Source: KaizenInvestor @Kaizen_Investor Barchart
Cyclicals keep outperforming defensives...
The message from the market on the macro cycle sems pretty clear Source: Bloomberg
Microsoft and Meta quarterly CAPEX -realised and projected
These aren’t the old MSFT and META... Source: Bloomberg, RBC
MSFT and META quarterly results (and capex projections) confirm our thesis: these are not your "old" Mag 7.
Indeed, the AI revolution has hit a major turning point as the largest U.S. tech companies embark on unprecedented AI infrastructure spending. The Magnificent 7 are now turning from Asset light to Asset Heavy. Although markets have so far rewarded this surge in investment, history shows that capex booms often lead to overbuilding, intensified competition, and disappointing stock performance. From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent risks ???
The S&P 500 just passed 7,000 for the first time ever
The index has added over $1.5 TRILLION in market cap within the past week 😳 Source: Peter Tuchman @EinsteinoWallSt Barchart
