ASML just dropped their Q4-25 earnings, and the market is absolutely electric. ⚡️
Shares jumped 7%, and it’s not hard to see why. While the world was debating an "AI bubble," ASML’s customers just placed a record-breaking bet on the future. The headline? A massive demand explosion. 🚀 The Numbers You Need to Know: Net Bookings: €13.2B (Massive beat vs. €7B estimate). The demand isn't just there; it’s doubling expectations. Revenue: €9.7B (Beating the €9.58B estimate). Backlog: A staggering €38.8B. ASML has years of work already sold. 2026 Guidance: Revenue projected between €34B - €39B (Top end well above the €35B consensus). The "AI Realism" Shift 🧠 CEO Christophe Fouquet’s statement is the real kicker. He noted a "notably more positive assessment" from customers regarding the sustainability of AI-related demand. This isn't hype. This is capacity planning. This is the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution being bolted into factories right now. Two High NA systems (the most complex machines humans have ever built) were officially recognized in Q4 revenue. The future is being shipped. Shareholder Value 💰 ASML isn't just growing; they are rewarding. A new €12B share buyback program through 2028 shows massive confidence in their long-term cash flow. The Verdict: ASML remains the ultimate bottleneck of the digital age. If you want AI, you need chips. If you want chips, you need ASML. Period. Is the semi-cycle just getting a second wind? 🌬️ Below the numbers and breakdown by App Economy Insights @EconomyApp · $ASML ASML Q4 FY25: • Net bookings €13.2B (€6.9B beat). • Net sales +5% Y/Y to €9.7B (€0.1B beat). • Gross margin 52% (+0pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 35% (-1pp Y/Y). • EPS €7.35 (€0.23 miss). • FY26 Net sales ~€36.5B (€1.4B beat).
FT headline today as S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday
Does it mean that the "sell US assets" narrative is already dead? Source: FT
Over 80% of $SPX constituents have entered their buyback blackout window, reducing corporate support as we kick off the Q4 earnings season.
Source: Hedgeye
Nancy Pelosi just filed ~$69M worth of new stock trades
Including selling $50M of Apple $AAPL Major sells include: - Sold $50M shares of Apple $AAPL - Sold $5M shares of Nvidia $NVDA - Sold $5M shares of Disney $DIS She bought new call options: - Bought $500K of $GOOGL LEAPS - Bought $500K of Amazon $AMZN LEAPS - Bought $500K of Apple $AAPL LEAPS - Bought $250K of Nvidia $NVDA LEAPS Source: Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker on X
There's Always a Reason to Sell.
Source: Koyfin @KoyfinCharts
Indian Stocks $INDA form a Death Cross ☠️ for the first time this year
The last one sent prices plunging more than 10% over the next 10 weeks 📉📉 Source: Barchart
Why NVIDIA H100 Rental Prices Are Rising Again
The recent spike in NVIDIA H100 rental prices shows that the AI compute market remains volatile rather than oversupplied. Despite increased GPU availability, demand is being driven by year-end budget spending, creating temporary but intense surges in usage. The market is increasingly split between low-cost “neoclouds,” which offer cheaper but less reliable capacity, and hyperscalers, which charge premium prices for stability and integration. The main constraint is no longer GPU supply but power and grid capacity, with electricity and cooling costs now embedded in rental pricing. Meanwhile, delays in deploying NVIDIA’s next-gen Blackwell (B200) chips keep H100s in high demand as the current workhorse, preventing prices from falling in a normal hardware cycle. Source hashtag#chart: www.zerohedge.com
Total Returns since inception of the first Gold ETF in November 2004
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B: +744% Gold ETF $GLD: +932% Source: Charlie Bilello
