As we head into May, a big question for markets is of course whether the US is on a path to a recession or not.
On the positive side, we have not seen a meaningfully consistent erosion of activity yet. Hard data have been doing ok, earnings are resilient, spreads are tightening again, etc. On the negative side, US has not spiked its tariffs this high since the 1940s. It is thus not an easy question to answer. And as shown by the table below by Goldman, market's ability to predict a recession is not that good... It is actually a toss coin Source: zerohedge
Before you Sell in May, just remember this month has been higher 9 of the past 10 years.
Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
Global stocks are close to reversing all post "Liberation Day" losses
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
Only European Investors have been dumping U.S. Stocks 🚨
The rest of the world, including China, are buying 📈📈 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, EPFR
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year.
This probably assumes no recession, because if there is one, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates is likely. Source. Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
If you bought European Stocks in 2000, you finally broke even after 25 years 🥳🍾🫂
And now you're praying that you didn't double top 🙏 Source: Barchart @Barchart
President Trump’s first 100 days in office is the worst for the stock market since Richard Nixon’s presidency...
Source: Stocktwits
Trump’s first 100 days: the biggest stock winners and losers.
🚀 Winners: $PLTR | Palantir +57% $PM | Philip Morris +39% $DG | Dollar General +36% $VRSN | Verisign +31% $NEM | Newmont +30% $NFLX | Netflix +29% 😨 Losers: $DECK | Deckers Outdoor -48% $TER | Teradyne -44% $ZBRA | Zebra -40% $ALB | Albemarle -40% $DAL | Delta Airlines -36% $UAL | United Airlines -36% Source: The Future Investors
