The "Deutsche Mag 5" -> Germany has its version of Magnificent 7 stocks
An index consisting of SAP, Siemens, Allianz, Munich Re, and Deutsche Telekom has outperformed the Dax Price Index by almost 90ppts over a 10y period. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg, TME
Germany has its version of Magnificent 7 stocks">
Germany has its version of Magnificent 7 stocks">
Germany's Dax closed at fresh all-time-high just as hedge fund Qube built a $1bn short bet against top German stocks
Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, Rheinmetall, Siemens Energy, Hellofresh, and Morphosys are among those being wagered against. Source: Bloomberg
German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine
Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing... Source: Robin Brooks
German inflation has accelerated again, at least the headline rate
CPI rose to 3.7% in December from 3.2% in November due to base effect. But Core CPI has fallen further to 3.5% in Dec from 3.8% in November. This means that core inflation is once again below headline inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A remarkable chart. The sector composition probably does not explain everything
Source: Michel A.Arouet
German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt
That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Times are tough for European industry, which is having to adapt to climate-friendly regulations, higher energy costs and increased competition from Chinese producers
German industry has seen production fall by -2.3% this year; worst of the four biggest eurozone economies. Source: Gavekal
An overview of European real estate price indices by Bloomberg / HolgerZ:
A shortage of housing has led to record real estate prices in ireland. The national property price index has now reached a value of 170.0, which is 3.9% above its bubble peak in April 2007. Property prices have increased by 113% in past 10yrs. Recent Dublin riots exposed the anger of Irish Youth facing a housing crisis resulting from the high housing & rent prices. Note the decline in German house prices (in purple) and steady markets in Italy / Portugal / Spain.
