Ahead of ECB meeting, we got some mixed messages about the central bank speed and extent of rates cuts - see below.
Meanwhile, the market see quarterly ECB rate cuts - see chart below. - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus told Econostream Media that he saw a “clear case” for an interest rate cut in September but regarded the potential for another one in October was “quite unlikely.” - Executive Board member Piero Cipollone told France’s Le Monde newspaper that recent economic data so far had confirmed that inflation was slowing, giving scope for the ECB to lower borrowing costs. “There is a real risk that our stance could become too restrictive and harm the economy”. - However, Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel continued to warn about premature easing, given elevated wage growth and services inflation, in an interview with the Faz newspaper. Source: Bloomberg, T Rowe
Germany has significantly lagged behind the US in economic growth over the past 30yrs
Since 1980, the US econ has expanded tenfold, while Germany's has only grown fivefold. This disparity is partly due to faster population growth in the US. However, the underperformance since the 1990s is no accident. The US has capitalized on digitalization far more effectively, driving economic gains, whereas Germany has been slower to embrace technological transformation. A clear example of this is Volkswagen, which highlights Germany's cautious approach to modernization. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Two scary trends in Europe.
Interesting to see how the year of the Euro introduction coincides with Italian industrial production trend. Meanwhile, German deindustrialization has just brought its industrial production to 2006 level... Source: Chart @DanielKral1, Michel A.Arouet
BREAKING: The right-wing AfD and the anti-woke BSW emerge as clear winners in the German state elections of Saxony and Thuringia, while the globalist government parties suffer a crushing defeat.
Source: Dr. Simon Goddek on X
Eye-opening chart, standard of living in Poland is catching up with Japan within just one generation...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Europe on its way to become retirement home
There are just three options to avoid a collapse: 1. Drastically increase retirement age 2. Cut pensions and healthcare 3. Skilled, educated immigration Source: Michel A.Arouet
Euro jumps to highest since July 2023 following dovish Powell remarks
The most important statement in his speech: “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.” Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
French Economy Gets Olympic Boost as Germany’s Malaise Deepens French composite PMI rises to 52.7; Germany’s down to 48.5.
‘August is likely an outlier due to the Olympic Games’ French services expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, driving Europe’s second-biggest economy as visitors from around the world flocked to Paris for the Olympic Games. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for the sector surged to 55 in August from 50.1 in July, far above the 50 threshold that divides growth from contraction and the median estimate of 50.3 in a Bloomberg survey. Source: Bloomberg
