Be careful not to look at gold only against the dollar. Gold is at its highest against many FIAT currencies
But even the $2,000 an ounce level is intriguing: despite clearly positive real rates and the appreciation of the greenback, gold is close to all-time highs. Looking forward, two scenarios are possible: o 1) Gold is overvalued and should soon depreciate o 2) Gold is seen as a safe haven against geopolitical uncertainty, but also against the political disorder in Washington and the declining confidence in the Fed. If this is the case, a possible depreciation of the dollar and a fall in the real interest rate could benefit the yellow metal. Bottom-line: Gold remains an attractive portfolio diversifier Source chart: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Fiat money debasement does have some strong polical and economical consequences
Javier Milei has just won Sunday’s presidential runoff against Economy Minister Sergio Massa. Javier Milei, a 53-year-old far-right economist and former television pundit with no governing experience, claimed nearly 56% of the vote, with more than 80% of votes tallied. Voters in this nation of 46 million demanded a drastic change from a government that has sent the peso tumbling, inflation skyrocketing and more than 40 percent of the population into poverty. With Milei, Argentina takes a leap into the unknown. He has promised to fix Argentina’s perennial economic problems by making drastic budget cuts, replacing the battered peso with the US dollar and shutting down the central bank. He will take office on December 10th.
There are few assets that can provide meaningful diversification benefit in a portfolio, particularly from a real return / purchasing power standpoint
In an environment where stocks and bonds are so highly correlated, notable to see the low correlation across commodities - Source: Bob Elliott.
Moments ago the yen spiked to a session high against the US dollar
The highest since Oct 12, after Japan's Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan may tweak its YCC again and allow long-term yields to rise above 1% as soon as its Tuesdays meeting. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Gold's normal negative correlation to the dollar (upper chart) and US bond yields continue to collapse
Highlighting the current support for XAU as an alternative investment amid rising financial risks as yields surge and investors worry about developments in the Middle East (Chart: Bloomberg)
Tweet by Lyn Alden -> "Egypt is currently dealing with a sovereign debt crisis. Multiple ratings downgrades, currency devaluation, working with the IMF, etc.
So, people buy stocks. The stocks are not doing well in dollar terms, but they're doing fine nominally.
Argentina's currency has lost 96% of its value vs the USD in the past decade
In that period, the central bank has increased the monetary base by 2,046% to finance government political spending... Source: Bloomberg
The Israeli Shekel has fallen to its lowest price against the U.S. Dollar since early 2015
Source: barchart
