US Rate-cut expectations were revised downward last week.
For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. This also happens to be the first time that markets align with the latest Fed guidance. Odds of a rate cut in this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in May are down to ~7%. Just 3 months ago, markets saw SEVEN rate cuts in 2024 with rate cuts beginning this month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Financial stress is the lowest since the Fed began raising rates, which begs the question -- why cut this year? 🤔
Source: Markets & Mayhem, St Louis Fed
World debt has crossed $225 TRILLION.
This is unlike anything we’ve seen. Source: Game of Trades
Where Inflation Is... and Isn't ...
source : yahoofinance, acemaxx
Why you need to invest, in one chart...
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the sp500 has gained 840% (7.8% per year) after adjusting for inflation... Source: Charlie Bilello
The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz.
Disinflationary forces continue in Germany.
Wholesales Prices drop 0.1% MoM in Feb after +0.1% MoM in Jan, plunge 3% YoY which is a good leading indicator for German food price CPI. Sources: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Where us inflation is and where it isn’t
Source: Evan, Yahoo Finance
