There's two hotbeds for re-export of western goods to Russia in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Armenia (top left) and Georgia (bottom left).
Armenia stands out for massive direct exports to Russia (black), Georgia for a huge surge in exports to Russia's satellite economies blue). Source: Robin Brooks
Will we soon see some relief on US wage inflation?
The US just experienced the largest population increase in a year ever. Mostly driven by the surge in immigration. Source: Tavi Costa
In just 5 years, the us dollar has plummeted by a staggering 92% when measured against Bitcoin...
Source: Loïc Staub
US Inflation – Where It Is And Isn’t
Source : Yahoo Finance
Japan enters recession with Nikkei about to hit All Time High as the yen trades at 150
The Nikkei has more than doubled from the covid lows and is about to breach its all time bubble highs set in in the last days of 1989... and moments ago Japan entered a recession. In fact, From its generational low set a decade ago, the Nikkei has almost quadrupled even as Japan's economy has slumped into recession three times! Once the second largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3% contraction in the third quarter. Fourth quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for a 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. Source: CNBC, www.zerohedge.com
In the latest BofA fund managers survey
when asked for the path of the US economy this year, 2/3 of investors say "soft landing," 1/5 say "no landing," 1/10 say "hard landing" (again, guaranteeing a "hard landing")... Source. BofA
Another look at yesterday's inflation report by MacroAlf.
This chart shows supercore inflation - a measure of sticky inflationary pressures Powell & Co often refer to: - It slowed down vertically towards ~3% until the end of last year - But since then it has now accelerated rapidly to 5.5%! Source: MacroAlf
It's official, higher for longer is back! For the first time this year, markets are now pricing-in just 4 interest rate cuts in 2024.
Just 6 weeks ago, markets were expecting 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. More importantly, the timing of the first rate cut has been pushed all the way back to June 2024. There is now only a 9% chance of rate cuts beginning in March 2024, down from 90% just 6 weeks ago. There is also a ~63% chance that interest rates are unchanged through May 2024. Rate cuts are all but guaranteed. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
