Eurozone inflation cooled more than expected, putting 2% target in sight:
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY in November down from 2.9% in October. Core CPI, which excludes volatile components like fuel & food, moderated for a 4th month to 3.6% from 4.2% in October. Markets are now pricing 1st ECB rate cut to take place at the April meeting. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Futures are now showing a ~45% chance that FED rate CUTS begin as soon as March 2024
There's also a growing (but small) chance that rate cuts begin in January 2024, at 4%. Prior to the most recent CPI inflation data, the base case showed rate cuts beginning in June 2024. There was also a 50% chance of another rate HIKE in 2024. This has been a quick turnaround... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
German inflation sinks more than expected as energy retreats & costs of fuels & travel fell sharply from prior mth
Headline CPI slows to 3.2% YoY in Nov from 3.8% in Oct & vs 3.5% exp. Food inflation slows to 5,5% from 6.1%, Core CPI dropped from 4.3% to 3.8%, so a long way to go to 2% goal. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
US GDP update shows US economy grew at more robust annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3, revised from +4.9% and after +2.1% QoQ in Q2
The Q3 contribution from inventories was +1.4%, revised from +1.3%, after 0% in Q2. Contribution from consumers +2.4% revised down from prev 2.7%. Contribution from net exports was -0.04%, revised from -0.08%, after +0.04% in Q2. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.36 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended less than 6 months ago
Fast approaching $34 trillion. Source: Charlie Bilello
Dozen of countries are now seeing a steady decline in C02 emissions alongside economic growth
Another tangible proof that being green (or at least greener) does not mean de-growth Source: FT
Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, default rates have gone from 1% to 5%+
Source: Apollo, TME
For some shoppers, the upcoming holiday season may lead to piling on more debt
About 25% of Americans are still paying off holiday debt from 2022, according to WalletHub’s November holiday shopping survey. But those already carrying a balance could find themselves sinking further into the red if they don’t get a handle on their credit card debt. “If you’re in a hole, stop digging,” Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst, tells CNBC Make It. One reason you may want to avoid racking up more debt is that higher interest rates are making it more expensive to pay down. As of November, the average credit card interest rate has risen from around 16% to nearly 21% since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2020 in an effort to combat inflation, according to Bankrate. A higher interest rate means it could take longer and be more expensive to pay down your credit card debt. Source: make it, www.zerohedge.com
