Fed monetary policy tightening (+525 basis points of interest rates hike + $1.15 Trillion of Fed balance sheet reduction) since 2022 has been quite brutal
2023 has been a miracle so far with headline inflation declining to 3% WITHOUT a recession and no increase in unemployment rate. But can it last? What could be the lagged effects of such a tightening? (chart courtesy of Tavi Costa)
Which countries have the most rate sensitive household sectors?
Source: BCA, The Longview
2024 outlook in one picture
Source: Hedgeye
US Continuing Jobless Claims Surges To 2 Year High
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week jumped to 231k (from an upwardly revised 218k), up to its highest since August...Worse still, continuing claims keeps rising, to 1.864mm - the highest since November 2021... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Let's hope the US economy is truly slowing down -- particularly manufacturing --, and that the winter is mild
US stocks of distillate fuel (diesel and heating oil) are ending the fall season at their lowest **seasonal** level in data since 1982 | Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
[Tweet by Bob Eliott] china faces the most classic dilemma in macro with an economy that is too weak and in need of additional easing and at the same time a desire for exchange rate stability
After months of keeping money too tight to stabilize the FX, at the first sign of FX strength they eased... Source chart: The Daily Shot
![[Tweet by Bob Eliott] china faces the most classic dilemma in macro with an economy that is too weak and in need of additional easing and at the same time a desire for exchange rate stability](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1700087239074.jpg)
China on Wednesday reported better-than-expected retail sales and industrial data for October, while the real estate drag worsened
- Retail sales grew by 7.6% last month from a year ago, above the 7% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. Retail sales, sports and other leisure entertainment products saw sales surge by 25.7% in October from a year ago, the data showed. Catering, as well as alcohol and tobacco, saw sales surge by double digits. Auto-related sales rose by 11.4% from a year ago. - Industrial production rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, faster than the 4.4% pace predicted by the Reuters poll. - Fixed asset investment for the first 10 months of the year grew by 2.9% from a year ago, missing expectations for a 3.1% increase. - Investment into real estate fell by 9.3% during that time, a steeper decline than the 9.1% drop reported for the first nine months of the year. - The urban unemployment rate was 5%, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was unchanged from September. The bureau has suspended reports of the unemployment rate for young people since summer. Source: CNBC
What a day...
The US 10-year note yield fell sharply to 4.49%, after CPI inflation hits 3.2% in October. The 10-year note yield went down 20 basis points in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index $DXY had its biggest drop in more than a year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Barchart
