22 Dec 2023
The probability of a Fed rate cut in March 2024 has jumped up to 83%. A month ago the odds were only 29%.
Source: Charlie Bilello
22 Dec 2023
Ocean Freight
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21 Dec 2023
MAP OF THE DAY: The number of ships that have diverted from the Red Sea and instead taken the 10/14-day longer route around Africa has risen to >100.
The map shows **container ships** declaring European ports as destination, with one only left in the Red Sea | Red Sea Source: Javier Blas
21 Dec 2023
ALERT: Job openings are collapsing (but from a very high level)
Source: Game of Trades
21 Dec 2023
Labor unions are pushing for big pay rise…
e.g Southwest Airlines pilot pay would increase 50pct under new labor contract. A wage-inflation spiral remains a threat (even if overall job creations are plunging) Source: CNBC
21 Dec 2023
Longer-term US inflation expectations have fallen dramatically over the past two months, to close to the Fed's 2% target
Source: Bloomberg
20 Dec 2023
Compound interest as the 8th wonder of the world...
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20 Dec 2023
German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt
That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
