JUST IN: Futures now show a 0% chance of additional rate hikes with rate cuts beginning in May 2024
Prior to today's CPI report, there was a 30% chance of at least one more rate hike ahead. Rate cuts were expected to begin in June 2024. Now, markets are pricing-in at least 4 rate CUTS in 2024. Markets are betting that the Fed is done. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today
What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gas Utilities, Used Cars, Gasoline, Medical Care, New Cars, Food at Home, Electricity, Apparel, and Food away from Home. Shelter and Transportation are the only major components that have a higher inflation rate today than June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
Income & wealth inequality is not just a capitalist country story. Watch Russia and China...
Source: Ruben Mathisen
The richsession...
A record-high share of US consumers are planning to go on vacation to a foreign country within the next six months. Via Apollo/Slok
This has happened ONLY 2 times in the last 75 years. In the US, savings as a % of income is now contracting, indicating that people are find it VERY hard to save
The last 2 contractions happened in: - 2008 - 2020 High interest rate + high debt is a MAJOR problem for people Source: Game of Trades
200+ years of US interest rates…
The Long View @HayekAndKeynes
Demographics is becoming a serious issue for US growth
As shown on the chart below, US population growth has collapsed, reaching levels near 0% indicating almost NO growth. This is actually the worst population growth setup seen in over 100 years of US history. Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years. Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5% Source: Game of trades
The chart below shows the distribution of interest rates on outstanding US mortgages
Over 30% of borrowers have rates below 3%, up from just ~5% of borrowers prior to the pandemic. Virtually no new mortgages are being taken out at 7%+ interest rates that we currently see. real estate market seems to be frozen Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE
