As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter >>> Buy Now Pay Later spending soars 20% compared to last year on Black Friday
It's also expected to jump 19% on Cyber Monday to a record $782 million. As excess savings in the US have gone from $2 trillion to zero, Americans are relying on debt more than ever. In other words, "deals" that are 20% off are being financed with credit card debt that has a 30% interest rate...
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, a record ~40% of all US homes currently do NOT have mortgages
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how UNAFFORDABLE this market is. Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases. In other words, this market is becoming ONLY affordable for those who are buying with CASH. As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse. This is called an affordability crisis. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine
Is Kyrgyzstan suddenly in a massive boom or are these vehicles and parts just transiting through Kyrgyzstan? Source: Robin Brooks
Amid a collapse in 'hard' economic data, 'soft' surveys from S&P Global was expected to see both Services and Manufacturing PMIs slide further in preliminary November data
However, the data was more mixed with US Manufacturing falling more than expected to 49.4 - back into contraction - (vs 49.9 exp) from 50.0 in October. However, US Services unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 50.8 (exp 50.3). Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
US budget deficits in the years to come
Source: Win Smart, CBO , Bloomberg
Below the average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
Source: TME, GS
The stock market isn't the economy...The Chinese version...
Source: GS, TME
Something to keep in mind for 2024?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
