The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
Startups are increasingly shutting down
Rising rates, lower liquidity and reduced risk appetite are hurting funding. Difficult business conditions are eroding viability further. Source: Markets & Mayhem
Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:
- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now
German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Is US inflation following the footsteps of the 1970s?
Source: Game of Trades
Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks ->
Monthly data on Italy's fiscal balance are volatile, but the September 2023 budget deficit is the largest ever...
🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP
Japan consistently ranks among the top nations with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%. Source: Genuine Impact
To whom the US owes money? Mostly to themselves actually...
Source: The King's Cheque En Qua
