US inflation is cooling, but only slowly
From the perspective of the Fed, the figures are probably not worrying enough to trigger another interest rate hike. However, they are not good enough to sound the all-clear either, CBK says. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path warns the IMF which projects the U.S. deficit to be 'elevated and persistent
Source: barchart, CBO
Another $40 billion in US debt today
US national debt has jumped by $550 billion in the past 3 weeks. This is WAY above the pace of $2 trillion per year expected by the government. The US was at $31.4 trillion just 4 months ago. Debt has increased by $2.1 trillion in the past 4 months. Source: WallStreetSilver
What to expect from today's US CPI data? Main take via JPM's market intelligence team
Source: JPM, TME
The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford to pay
The consumer default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51% This level is higher than the: - Dot Com bubble - Financial Crisis - C-19 With credit card interest rates still above 20%. Consumers are going to continue feeling the pressure. Source: Game of Trades
Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record
Since 1974, this has only happened ONCE: → The Financial Crisis. Back then, this metric reached levels as low as -5%. At the current rate, the risk of a credit event is on the rise. Source: Game of trades
Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September
The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com
German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates
CPI slowed to 4.5% in September YoY from 6.1% in August. Headline CPI is now lower than Core CPI BUT food prices are already on the rise again. Compared to previous month, food has become 0.4% more expensive. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
