China reported a worse-than-expected drop in exports in October, while imports surprisingly rose for the month from a year ago
China’s customs agency said exports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 6.4% in October from a year ago. That’s worse than the 3.3% drop predicted by a Reuters poll. Overall, China’s exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year. China’s exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union fell by double digits in October, according to CNBC calculations of official data. Exports to the U.S. dropped by more than 8%, the analysis showed. Imports rose by 3% in U.S. dollar terms in October from a year ago. That’s in contrast to the Reuters’ forecast for a 4.8% drop from a year ago. However, China’s imports from the U.S. were down by 3.7% in October versus the year ago period, CNBC calculations of customs data showed. China’s imports from the European Union rose by more than 5%, while those from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew by 10.2%, the analysis showed. Source: CNBC
The European composite PMI output index pointed to the sharpest decline in nearly three years
October's data also showed firms in the region cutting staff on a net basis for the first time since early 2021 The region is quite likely to go into a recession. Source: Markets Mayhem
NY FED recession probability is on highs
Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions. Source: Wall Street Silver
World debt has rapidly increased since 1997. And is now around $225 trillion. Is it sustainable?
Source: Game of Trades
The sudden deterioration of US economic surprises is among the factors behind the recent decline in long duration bonds
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura, TME
Will she get it right this time?
ECB
A very interesting chart highlighted by Tavi Costa
This is the largest number of workers on strike in the history of the data. As corporate profit margins remain comfortably above their typical averages, it leaves room to absorb increased labor costs. This could contribute significantly to inflation. Source: Tavi Costa
Morgan Stanley industrial team runs through their conclusions coming out of a choppy earnings season
A double-digit short-cycle slowdown is getting priced in, but ongoing inventory and incremental capex pressures are not. Source: MS, TME
