Over 60% of outstanding US mortgages have an interest rate below 4%. Current average 30y mortgage rate is north of 7.5%...
This is the 1 factor driving the limited housing supply as many of these homeowners can't afford to move... Source: Charlie Bilello, National Mortgage Database
The Bank of Japan is purchasing government bonds at a record pace this year
A factor that likely prompted its recent move to allow larger yield movements to reduce the strain on its control of longer-term #interestrates. Source: Bloomberg
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany
Producer Prices drop for 1st time since 2020, a good leading indicator for Consumer Prices. In July, producer prices (PPI) fell by 6.0% YoY, the biggest decline since October 2009, when the financial crisis has caused prices to collapse. Last year, the prices received by manufacturers for their goods had at times risen at a record rate of 45.8%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Treasury 10-Year real yield tops 2% for first time since 2009
The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries extended its ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%.
Rising real yields reflect firmer economy and higher deficit.
Source: Bloomberg
In 2009 China sparked global reflation. In 2023, could China to spark global deflation?
Source: www.zerohedge.com
"inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman
Source: Charlie Bilello
Are US consumers heading for trouble?
Only $200 billion is left in excess savings, which is keeping households afloat. 2 months ago, this number was at $500 billion. At current rate, savings will be depleted by September 2023 Source: Game of trades
Unprecedented times in Argentina
- On Monday, Argentina’s central bank raised interest rates to 118%. - Forex: you now get a record 350 Argentine Pesos for each US Dollar. - Argentina 30-year mortgage is now at a record 82.2%. - For the first time since 1991, their inflation rate is above 100%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
