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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 3 Oct 2023 - - - #### US 30Year Yield reaches 2007 High The US 30-year yield rose to the highest level since 2007. This week's Treasury selloff came after US lawmakers managed to avert a government shutdown, prompting traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in November. [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![US 30Year Yield reaches 2007 High](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/US%2030Yr%20Yield%2003oct23.jpg) ![US 30Year Yield reaches 2007 High](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/US%2030Yr%20Yield%2003oct23.jpg) 2 Oct 2023 - - - #### The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment Imagine the deficit in next recession, whenever it may come. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696197524526.jpg) ![The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696197524526.jpg) 2 Oct 2023 - - - #### For the next 45 days or so, the US government will NOT be shut down - this is most likely a relief for markets Still, this stopgap bill is only a temporary solution. They are just kicking the can down he road another time. Indeed, the House and Senate are both struggling to approve yearlong spending bills, and the gulf between the two parties remains vast. And as highlighted by the Kobeissi letter, there is still NO LONG-TERM PLAN. For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%. Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as rates skyrocket. To put this in perspective, 5% on $33 trillion is ~$1.7 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense. As deficit spending rises, rates are also rising as the US issues trillions in bonds to cover the deficit. It's a never ending cycle of borrowing to spend which is driving rates higher and leading to interest expense being 20% of US revenue... How are they going to fix this? Source: CBO, The Kobeissi Letter [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![For the next 45 days or so, the US government will NOT be shut down - this is most likely a relief for markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696191268467.jpg) ![For the next 45 days or so, the US government will NOT be shut down - this is most likely a relief for markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696191268467.jpg) 2 Oct 2023 - - - #### In case you missed it: The past few months have brought a very significant tightening of US financial conditions; the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is now at the most restrictive point since November 2022. (HT GS) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![In case you missed it:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696187051735.jpg) ![In case you missed it:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696187051735.jpg) 2 Oct 2023 - - - #### The longest time period chart on US interest rates you will ever find... Source: BofA [#Food for Thoughts|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![The longest time period chart on US interest rates you will ever find...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696062424216.jpg) ![The longest time period chart on US interest rates you will ever find...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696062424216.jpg) 2 Oct 2023 - - - #### While mega-caps tech stocks are recording huge returns on their cash pile thanks to the rise of interest rates, this is not the case for the rest of the market Small cap companies are paying the most interest expense ever recorded and unfortunately their interest income is not keeping pace. This will become an even larger problem when small companies are forced to refinance at significantly higher rates. Source: FT, barchart [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![While mega-caps tech stocks are recording huge returns on their cash pile thanks to the rise of interest rates, this is not the case for the rest of the market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696062094127.jpg) ![While mega-caps tech stocks are recording huge returns on their cash pile thanks to the rise of interest rates, this is not the case for the rest of the market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696062094127.jpg) 29 Sep 2023 - - - #### There we go again... The game of chicken is on...The US government is now just 48 hours away from a SHUTDOWN. This comes less than 3 months after the largest debt ceiling crisis since 2011. Meanwhile, the government is borrowing over $14 billion PER DAY and spending $3 billion per day on interest expense alone. According to Goldman, a government-wide shutdown would reduce quarterly annualized growth by around 0.2% for each week it lasted after accounting for modest private sector effects. Goldman's baseline is that a shutdown could last for 2-3 weeks (the Trump government shutdown, the longest in history, lasted 35 days, from Dec 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 2019). - Meanwhile, Bloomberg also speculates that in an extreme tail event, the maximum hit to 4Q GDP would be a drag of 2.8% if the shutdown lasts for the entire quarter. Source cartoon: San Diego Tribune [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![There we go again...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695990583484.jpg) ![There we go again...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695990583484.jpg) 29 Sep 2023 - - - #### Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation “We’re going to have a debt crisis in this country (...) How fast it transpires, I think, is going to be a function of that supply-demand issue, so I’m watching that very closely.” Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%. “I think you’re going to get a meaningful slowing of the economy,” Dalio said. Source: CNBC [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695979747028.jpg) ![Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695979747028.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/166) [164](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/164) [165](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/165) [166](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/166) [167](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/167) [168](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/168) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/168) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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