After adjusting for inflation, US Retail Sales fell 2.5% over the last year, the 8th consecutive YoY decline.
That's the longest down streak since 2009. Nominal retail sales increased 0.5% YoY vs. historical average of 4.7%. Source: Charlie Bilello
Is the yield curve a flawed recession indicator?
While the deeply inverted yield curve has stoked anxiety among investors about the prospect of a recession, Goldman Sachs has a different message: stop worrying about it. Indeed, the bank's Chief Economist Jan Hatzius just cut his assessment of the probability of a recession to 20% from 25%, following a lower-than-expected inflation report last week.
So far, in fiscal year 2023, the US government has a total deficit of $1.393 TRILLION.
In June 2023 alone, the deficit was $228 billion, up from just $88 billion in June 2022. On average, the US deficit has risen by ~$155 billon per MONTH in FY2023. At the current rate, total US debt would rise by $18.5 TRILLION in 10 years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Economists polled by German research institute Ifo expect global inflation to avg 7% in 2023, before slightly easing to 6% in 2024.
The avg expectation of 4.9% for the long term until 2026 is still high, Ifo said, though marginally below the 5% estimate in Q1. Lowest level of inflation expectation was recorded in Europe, yet economists do not expect the rate to return to ECB's 2% target by 2026. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In China, the unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June
A new record.
According to new US government data, annualized interest payments on US debt just crossed $900 BILLION for the first time in history
Government spending jumped 15% in June, the same month we had the debt ceiling “crisis.” Ironically, in the same month we had a debt ceiling crisis, US Federal spending hit a near record and annualized interest expense crossed $900 billion. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
China reports Q2 GDP miss, fueling calls for more stimulus
China said Monday that 2nd quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations (+7.3%). This marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. Retail sales for June rose by 3.1%, a touch below the 3.2% expected. Industrial production for June rose by 4.4% from a year ago, better than the 2.7% forecast. So far, Beijing has shown reluctance to embark on greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. A Politburo meeting expected later this month could provide more details on economic policy. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
Wall Street is giving up on us recessoon risk as highlighted by a Wall Street Journal article
Jim Bianco Research shows consensus expectations for the coming quarters are pointing towards a very small contraction. The blue line is the June update of a survey conducted by Bloomberg of around 70 economists showing the median forecast for the next six quarters.
