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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 12 Oct 2023 - - - #### Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record Since 1974, this has only happened ONCE: → The Financial Crisis. Back then, this metric reached levels as low as -5%. At the current rate, the risk of a credit event is on the rise. Source: Game of trades [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) ![Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697054582557.jpg) ![Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697054582557.jpg) 12 Oct 2023 - - - #### Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697057864606.jpg) ![Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697057864606.jpg) 11 Oct 2023 - - - #### German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates CPI slowed to 4.5% in September YoY from 6.1% in August. Headline CPI is now lower than Core CPI BUT food prices are already on the rise again. Compared to previous month, food has become 0.4% more expensive. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697025495066.jpg) ![German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697025495066.jpg) 11 Oct 2023 - - - #### US 10-year Yield pullback from last week peak US 10-year Yield pullback sharply from last week peak. After the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, the US 10-year Govt Yield came close to hitting 4.9%. As of today, that Yield is down below 4.6%. [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![US 10-year Yield pullback from last week peak](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/US%2010YR%202023-10-11%20151114.jpg) ![US 10-year Yield pullback from last week peak](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/US%2010YR%202023-10-11%20151114.jpg) 11 Oct 2023 - - - #### Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000 Mortgage demand also just fell to its lowest level since 1995. 8% mortgages are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696971034251.jpg) ![Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696971034251.jpg) 9 Oct 2023 - - - #### Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk BofA, Markets & Mayhem 🤖 [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696801276361.jpg) ![Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696801276361.jpg) 9 Oct 2023 - - - #### The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle Source: SocGen, TME [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) ![The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696748196902.jpg) ![The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696748196902.jpg) 9 Oct 2023 - - - #### In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times: 2008 - Great Recession. 2020 - Covid Pandemic Crash. 2023 - The Everything Bubble. Source: Whalewire [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696747486512.jpg) ![In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696747486512.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/165) [164](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/164) [165](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/165) [166](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/166) [167](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/167) [168](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/168) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/167) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/170?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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