Syz the moment

Maybe not yet...United pilots could get raises of up to 40% under a preliminary deal, after similar agreements were made at Delta and American Airlines For the first time in many decades the labor force has the upper hand in negotiating across a broad swath of industries, and they're using it as much as they can. Bottom-line: The wageflation story isn't quite over yet. Instead, it is evolving. Source: Markets Mayhem, Wall Street Journal

The investment chief at one of the world’s top hedge funds has warned the US battle with inflation is far from over, and bets on a rapid series of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year are premature. Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, said markets were wrong to assume the Fed will soon ease monetary policy. “The Fed is not going to cut,” he told the Financial Times. “They are not going to do what is priced in.” Pricing in futures markets indicates that investors anticipate one further 0.25 percentage point rate rise from the Fed’s current target range of 5 to 5.25 per cent by the autumn. Over the following 12 months they expect the central bank to reverse course, cutting borrowing costs six times to around 3.8 per cent by November 2024. “Inflation has come down but it is still too high, and it is probably going to level out where it is — we’re likely to be stuck around this level of inflation,” Prince said. “The big risk right now is that you get a bounce in energy prices when wages are still strong”, which could drive a rebound in inflation, he added. Prince, who oversees the Connecticut-based firm’s assets with co-CIOs Karen Karniol-Tambour and Greg Jensen, said he believes core inflation is likely to bottom out between 3.5 and 4 per cent, pushing the Fed to tighten monetary policy further and disappointing investors who this week sent US stocks to their highest level in over a year. That tightening “could take the form of holding rates steady in the face of expectations of a cut”, he said. Source: FT

Source: BofA

The Biden administration announced it would automatically cancel education debt for 804,000 borrowers, for a total of $39 billion in relief. The debt cancellation is a result of the administration’s fixes to repayment plans, which included updated counts of borrowers’ payments. Source: CNBC

Disinflationary trends in the US 1) CPI Inflation: 3.0%, Lowest since March 2021. 2) PPI Inflation: 0.1%, Lowest since August 2020. 3) Import Prices: -6.1%, Lowest since May 2020. 4) Export Prices: -12%, Lowest on record. Source: Charlie Bilello

Disinflation is on the way in Germany. Wholesale prices dropped 2.9% YoY in June, an acceleration from the 2.6% decline from May & the biggest annual decrease since June 2020. Lower wholesale prices could translate to falling #inflation in Germany. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

The spread between US CPI and PPI is a good omen for corporate profit margins. This is key to widening profit margins. Companies are able to boost the prices they charge consumers more and more relative to their input cost. The spread between y/y CPI and PPI remains at the widest levels since the current incarnation of PPI started in 2011. Source: Bespoke, Lisa Abramowicz

More disinflation in the offing: US PPI slowed to 0.1% YoY in June, from 0.9% in May and lower than expected. This is smallest pace since Aug 2020 and is down from the all-time high of 11.7% YoY from March 2022 in a promising sign for CPI. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ