🚨A very interesting chart: The BLS collects roughly 90,000 price quotes each month across 200 categories to calculate CPI.
Normally, about 10% of prices are estimated when data is missing. Now around 32% are MADE UP, based on assumptions, not real prices, double the share seen in the 2020 Crisis... Source: Global Markets Investors, BLS, zerohedge
Another look at us core inflation...
What do you see? Do you think it is steady? "A picture is worth 10,000 words" Source: Andrea Lisi, CFA @Andrea_Texas_82
😨 Well, that’s not good…
Maybe "Too late Powell" is that that late... • PPI: 3.3% YoY vs. 2.5% est. • PPI: 0.9% MoM vs. 0.2% est. • Core PPI: 3.7% YoY vs. 3.0% est. • Core PPI: 0.9% MoM vs. 0.2% est. ‼️This is PPI MoM hottest since March 2022 as services PPI explode higher Over half of the increase is attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which jumped 2.0% 🤢 Our take 👇 ▶️ The higher than expected producer prices seems to confirm the underlying price pressures in the service sector already exhibited in the consumer price indices ▶️ This is bad news for the hashtag Fed in his fight against inflation. Market expectations for several key rate cuts in the next months will likely get partially priced out now. ▶️ We stick to our view that the current trade and overall economic environment in the USA will not let the US-Fed to lower its rate by more than 1 cut for the remainder of the year.
Nuclear reactors under construction around the world.
Source: zerohedge
😨 China’s economy slowed across the board in July with factory activity and retail sales disappointing, suggesting the world’s No. 2 economy is losing traction
‼️ China Retail Sales rose 3.7% Y/Y in July, well below consensus of 4.6%. This is the weakest reading since November 2024. On a month-over-month basis, retail sales declined for a second consecutive month, by -0.1%. ‼️China Industrial Production rose 5.7% Y/Y in July, missing consensus of 5.9% and slowing from June's 6.8%. This marks the weakest pace of growth since January. The sequential M/M growth rate also slowed to 0.4%. 🔴 China Economic data👇 ▶️ July retail sales 3.7% y/y [Est.4.6%] ▶️July industrial growth 5.7% y/y [Est.5.9%] ▶️Jan-Jul fixed asset investment 1.6% y/y [Est.2.7%] ▶️ July Unemployment 5.2% [Prev. 5.1%] Note that while China's industrial production continues to run well above the pre-COVID trend, real retail sales have diverged further away from the pre-COVID trend. Source: Augur Infinity
An important remainder by Otavio Costa
Inflation data came in hotter than expected, but it is not just about tariffs. Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. You don’t solve it with a 7% fiscal deficit and a money supply hitting record highs. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The majority of managers (via the BoA survey) see a return to QE or YCC to deal with the super-sized fiscal deficit.
This will be CPI inflationary, but with 10y bond yields pinned to (say) 4% maybe stocks might like that outcome for a while, before reality hits home. Source: Albert Edwards, H/T @johnauthers, BofA
The us budget deficit disaster continues with renewed momentum.
Source: zerohedge through Peter Mallouk on X
