This morning’s surprisingly negative ADP data comes at a tricky time, with Friday’s jobs report at risk from the shutdown.
Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in two-and-a-half years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000. The report comes as the funding impasse in Washington, D.C. has led to the first government closure since late 2018 into early 2019. Failing a deal over the next two days, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report for September will not be released, nor will the Labor Department put out the weekly jobless claims count on Thursday. The last time the BLS payrolls report was delayed was in 2013. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg, @M_McDonough on X
In case you missed it... Eurozone inflation picked up in Sep, with CPI rising 2.2% YoY, driven by hashtag#energy base effects and higher service costs.
Core inflation, which excluding volatile items like energy & food, remained steady at 2.3%, in line with expectations. Source: Bloomberg, HolgrZ
Rate cuts aren’t created equal.
Goldman’s data shows that when the Fed cuts outside of a recession, stocks usually surge, non-recessionary cuts have historically lifted the S&P 500 by 50%+ over two years. But if cuts arrive during a recession, the story flips. Equities struggle, with the index falling 20–30% on average. The takeaway is simple: it’s not just about cuts, it’s about the backdrop. Cuts in calm waters boost markets. Cuts in storms don’t. Source: StockMarket.news on X
Government shutdowns all have the same cause:
Congress fails to approve new spending when previous spending bills expire. But their impact can vary based on timing, duration and quirks of the budget process that can make money available to some agencies but not others. Here's what shuts down in a shutdown - Bloomberg
US government shutdowns can last weeks...
The longer the shutdown, the higher the impact on GDP Source: Bloomberg
Without tech spending, the US would have been close to, or in, a recession earlier this year:
DB's Saravelos. "Perhaps Nvidia, which employed only 36,000 people at the last update earlier this year, holds the keys to all global macro in 2026:" Source: DB, Lisa Abramowicz
A "too much growth" scare on Wall Street?
Interesting to see that yesterday's pullback was NOT prompted by bad US macro data: on the contrary, Thursday's economic number beat expectations across the board: 👉 Initial jobless claims unexpectedly tumbled to YTD lows, proving that the Texas-driven spike 2 weeks ago was indeed a one-time event... 👉 Durables goods ex-transports rose for a 5th straight month.... 👉 US Q2 GDP was unexpectedly revised sharply higher, printing at a whopping 3.8%, above all estimates, and the highest in 2 years driven by a bizarre surge in consumption - see chart below 👉US home sales were also well above expectations. In other words 4 for 4 on the data front. So much for those stagflation concerns... ‼️ But good (macro) news become bad news for the markets as the market quickly priced out odds of 2 rate cuts by December, closing the day at 1.56 rate cuts expected, down from 1.7 at the start of the day. It also pushed the 10 year yield and the greenback higher... At the time when equity valuations are extended, a rise in bond yields could indeed trigger some profit taking on US stocks Source chart: zerohedge
🚨 BREAKING:
➡️ US PCE Price Index (Aug) YoY 2.7% vs 2.7% Est PCE MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% Est ➡️US Core PCE Price Index (Aug) YoY 2.9% vs 2.9% Est (Highest PCE reading since February) MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% Est EXACTLY AS EXPECTED. BULLISH 🚀 FOR MARKETS
