⚠️US government spending is constantly rising
Social benefits now reflect 46% of all US government expenditures, an all-time high, excluding the 2020-2021 crisis. Social Security alone is accounting for 15.4%. This will only rise further as the US population is aging. Source: Global Markets Investor
The economic slump in Germany worsened in Q2.
GDP fell by 0.3% in Q2 QoQ, worse than the initial estimate of -0.1%, mainly due to a sharp drop in capital investment, which declined 1.4%. Consumer spending rose by 0.1% QoQ, contributed less than previously thought, while government spending rose 0.8% QoQ. The size of the German economy is currently still slightly below its 2019 level, ING's @carstenbrzeski has calculated: "It looks increasingly unlikely that any substantial recovery will materialise before 2026," he says. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
‼️US freight shipments are sliding fast
The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes in the US, has fallen to its lowest since the Great Financial Crisis, when excluding 2020. This signals weakening demand for shipping and goods movement, and a slower economy. Source: Global Markets Investor
⛔ The BLS is set to revise down US job numbers by 550,000-950,000 for 12 months ending March 2025 on September 9, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
That’d be the biggest 12-month downward revision in 15 YEARS. Total cut over 2 years would reach 1.5M jobs. Source: Goldman Sachs, Global Markets Investor
Red or Blue, the us national debt goes up.
The only thing both parties can agree on is sending the bill to future generations. Next stop: $38 trillion. Source: Peter Mallouk
Ahead of Jackson Hole this week, we note that US Financial Conditions are basically at their loosest in the post-COVID era...
Source: zerohedge
🚨A very interesting chart: The BLS collects roughly 90,000 price quotes each month across 200 categories to calculate CPI.
Normally, about 10% of prices are estimated when data is missing. Now around 32% are MADE UP, based on assumptions, not real prices, double the share seen in the 2020 Crisis... Source: Global Markets Investors, BLS, zerohedge
Another look at us core inflation...
What do you see? Do you think it is steady? "A picture is worth 10,000 words" Source: Andrea Lisi, CFA @Andrea_Texas_82
