‼️Mixed US inflation numbers.
Headline number steady. Core picked up. Services is strong. Supercore accelerated further. US CPI inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs showed mostly modest impacts. ▶️ The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. ▶️Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. ▶️A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index, while food prices were flat and energy fell 1.1%, the BLS said. Tariff-sensitive New vehicle prices also were unchanged though used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% jump. Transportation and medical care services both posted 0.8% moves higher. ▶️Tariffs did appear to show up in several categories. 👉 For instance, household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June. 👉 However, apparel prices were up just 0.1% and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%. 👉 Canned fruits and vegetables, which generally are imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat. Note that both overall CPI and core CPI hit the highest level since February Source: CNBC, Charlie Bilello
‼️ An important item of today's CPI
The super-core measure, which is probably the Fed's most closely watch component, did increase further in July: +0.48% MoM (prior +0.21%) and +3.21% YoY (prior +3.02%). This is the largest annual increase since February. ▶️ As highlighted by Lawrence McDonald on X, the Supercore has been higher than 3% for four years vs. below 3% for the previous 8 years pre-2020. Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
The cost of Nutella in Germany is rising faster than overall inflation.
A 750g jar has gone up by nearly 40% since 2019, far outpacing Germany’s general inflation rate of 21.8% over the same period. But this isn’t just about hazelnut spread: food prices in Germany as a whole have climbed by 38.4% since the end of 2019, according to Eurostat’s Food CPI. That’s much higher than in Italy (+29.5%) or France (+25.9%), highlighting how sharply grocery bills have risen in Germany. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The US president said he was nominating the 'Highly Respected Economist' EJ Antoni from the right wing Heritage Foundation to chair the agency
After firing the former commissioner for a gloomy jobs report he claimed was 'rigged' https://on.ft.com/3UkAOWG Source: FT
Apollo's Sløk says the U.S. remains the most dynamic economy in the world — and he uses one simple chart to make his point: the number of new business applications.
Source: Apollo, HolgerZ
Watch out US CPI electricity today
Recent BBG article cites the recent 2x increase in electricity vs. broader inflation. Source: Bloomberg
Currency debasement is not a bug — it’s a feature of the fiat system.
Since Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, not one of 152 countries has kept average inflation below 2%. Even Switzerland averaged 2.2%. Source: Global Markets Investors
China’s July exports top expectations, rising over 7%; imports record biggest jump in a year ‼️
▶️ Exports climbed 7.2% in July in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Thursday, exceeding Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of a 5.4% rise. ▶️Imports rose 4.1% last month from a year earlier, marking the biggest jump since July 2024, according to LSEG data. The data also indicated a recovery in import levels following June’s 1.1% rebound. Economists had forecast imports in July to fall 1.0%, according to a Reuters poll. ▶️On a year-to-date basis, China’s overall exports jumped 6.1% from a year earlier, while imports fell 2.7%, customs data showed. China’s trade surplus this year, as of July, reached $683.5 billion, 32% higher than the same period in 2024. Source: Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity, CNBC
