U.S. equity risk premium has fallen to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Dot Com Bubble.
This is the premium that investors receive to compensate them for taking on additional risk in the stock market instead of treasuries. Source: Barchart, BofA
Four Years Since COVID
Sunday, 2/19/24 marked the four-year anniversary of the US stock market's peak closing level just before COVID hit in 2020. February 19th, 2020 was an unremarkable trading day that saw the S&P 500 rally about 0.5% and gold hit its highest level since 2013. At that point, the novel coronavirus was taking a serious toll on China, but there was still only slight anxiety and nervousness about it having a major impact on US shores. Below is a list of the best performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since then. At the top of the list is energy-drink maker Celsius (CELH), which is far ahead of the pack with a gain of 3,030%. source : bespoke
Warren Buffett loves share cannibals.
"The math isn't complicated. When the share count goes down, your interest in the businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices". Source: Koyfin Charts
Reminder
U.S. markets are closed Tomorrow, Monday, Feb. 19, in observance of Presidents Day. The NYSE, Nasdaq and bond markets will be closed. The next market holidays will be Friday, March 29, for Good Friday, followed by Memorial Day on Monday, May 27.
Why you should never trade on a curved screen
source: wallstreetbets
Nikkei 225 hit 38k level this week. Last time it happened was 1989...
See below the level of other indices at the time... Source. Bloomberg
BEWARE OF SCALPING!
I see more and more amateur traders taking scalping training and lessons and engaging into day-trading activities hoping to make quick profits and a living from it. They need to be aware that the vast majority of hashtag#trading strategy are money losing (see this article: https://lnkd.in/e4vb2Nde). The best investment strategy is long-term investing, sticking to a pre-defined strategic assetallocation and rebalancing after extreme moves. What is scalping? A scalping strategy is a short-term trading technique that aims to capitalize on small price movements in highly liquid markets. Traders who employ this strategy, known as scalpers, enter and exit trades quickly, usually within seconds or minutes, to take advantage of small price differentials. But scalping is hard and almost all scalpers end up losing. Scalping is a waste of time because it involves competing with better-equipped traders and institutions and you need to deal with lots of randomness and noise in the market. Most likely you end up losing money.
The geographical spread of valuations across regions remains significant.
12m forward P/E multiple. MSCI Regions. Data for the last 20 years. Source: TME, Factset
