Cocoa is now trading at a new 46-year high after 8 consecutive green days.
In fact, 18 of the last 20 days have been green for Cocoa. It really wants an all-time high! Source: Barchart
Is the market pricing in a Trump victory?
Based on Goldman's Republican winners vs losers basket performance, it appears stocks are moving in sync with Trump's odds. Source: www.zerohedge.com
In 2004, Priceline $BKNG acquired Booking.com for $100 million.
Over the last 12 months, http://Booking.com generated ~$20 billion in revenue! Source: Finchat
Equity futures spiked while bond yields dropped yesterday after the close after US Treasury unexpectedly slashed borrowing estimates:
- For Q1, US Treasury now expects to borrow "only" $760 billion in debt, which is $55 billion lower than what it expected in October 2023, and is about $30BN below wall street estimates. The difference the Treasury explained is "largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance." In other words, Treasury expects higher taxes to more than make up the $55BN difference from the previous estimate. - For Q2, the Treasury now expects to borrow only $202 billion in debt. While there was no previous Treasury forecast for this period, Wall Street expected a number somewhere in the $500BN vicinity, so clearly this is far lower than preciously expected. Source: Bloomberg, Chris Middleton, Lawrence McDonald, www.zerohedge.com
The Fed did almost no QT in the last 3 weeks
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, this was the smallest change in their balance sheet since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
NARROWNESS >>> The top 13 stocks have driven the whole of the S&P’s YTD upside with the top five contributing ~70%
Source: Bloomberg, TME
How are the 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks doing so far this year?
Nvidia Is Up +23.2% $NVDA. Meta Is Up +11.3% $META. Alphabet Is Up +9.1% $GOOGL. Microsoft Is Up +7.4% $MSFT. Amazon Is Up +4.7% $AMZN. 🔴 Apple Is Down -0.1% $AAPL 🔴 Tesla Is Down -26.2% $TSLA Source: Jesse Cohen, Bloomberg
Intel $INTC, is down 10% after-hours after providing weaker than expected guidance in their earnings release
The move lower has erased $20 billion in market cap in just two hours. Intel provided Q1 2024 EPS guidance of $0.13, which is well below expectations of $0.34. They are also guiding Q1 2024 revenue of $12.2B-$13.2B, below expectations of $14.2B. The question becomes if this weakness is an Intel issue or an industry-wide issue. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
