Believe it or not...
On December 14, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.6%.
Goldman Trader: Are $6 Trillion In Money-Market Funds About To Flood The Stock Market
.
What a journey for Ireland...
Ireland has experienced unprecedented growth in prosperity in recent years. GDP per capita is now almost $100k, which is more than twice as much as in Germany and three times as much as in Italy. The small country with a population of 5 million has benefited from the large investments made by tech giants, who have settled here b/c of the low tax regime. No other country in Europe has a meaningful budget surplus, can set up 2 sovereign wealth funds, (Future Ireland Fund (FIF) and a smaller Infrastructure, Nature and Climate Fund (INCF) and has a war chest of €2.5bn before 3 important elections. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Uranium 16-Year High 🚨: Uranium has now surged past $85 per pound for the first time since January 2008
Source: Barchart
The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 ETFs all closed at a new total return high yesterday
Last time that happened: November 5, 2021. $DIA $SPY $QQQ Source. Charlie Bilello
BREAKING: an ATH for the Dow > 37k !
The Dow Jones rose to its highest level ever following latest Fed meeting—which left rates unchanged & predicted 3 possible cuts in the coming year—as cheer continues to flood equities markets at year’s end. Breaking its prior ATH of nearly 37,000 set in January 2022 Dow rose >37k. Source: Bloomberg
Interest rate futures shift to showing a ~57% chance of rate CUTS beginning in March 2024
Markets also see a growing 9% chance of rate cuts beginning as soon as next month. Futures are projecting a total of FIVE rate cuts in 2024. There's a 28% chance of 6 cuts and an 11% chance of 7 cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed just said they see just 3 rate cuts in 2024. So markets are still "fighting" the Fed. But the Fed is starting to adjust... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Earnings should return to growth in 2024 across all major global markets after a difficult 2023, led by emerging markets
All major regions are on track for earnings declines in 2023, creating easy comparisons for 2024. Source: Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg
