US government spending (inflation-adjusted) since 2020 has exceeded the combined spending of:
- World War I - World War II - 1970 to 1990 Is this sustainable?
US Bankruptcy filings keep moving higher
This sounds like a logical consequence of 2 years of aggressive FED tightening but still something to keep an eye on Source: Win Smart, CFA
B of A: “.. At the current monthly rundown pace, excess savings should continue to support consumer spending at least through the rest of 2024."
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Liquidity as a key market's driver in one chart -> The stock market's rise mirrors the money supply's growth. Both have risen over 4,500% since 1967
Source: Win Smart, CFA, Game of Trades
Rabobank: "What happens when all of those regional US banks with balance sheets loaded with dubious commercial real estate loans can no longer pledge underwater securities at par?
The answer is more money printing, which explains the price action in the S&P500." Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
All the headline numbers have showed that the labor market is incredibly strong
But is it really? Currently, the US has a record ~8.6 MILLION people that are holding 2 or more jobs. Since 2020, nearly 2.6 million people have taken on an additional job. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
This US equity bull market doesn't care about earnings misses...
Despite the fact that >20% of SPX companies have missed, on average, they are still getting rewarded for it. Source: TME, Jefferies
The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 17% from its peak in October 2022 (from $496,800 to $413,200)
After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally before bottoming. Source: Charlie Bilello
