US equites sector valuations vs. history
>>> Energy as the standout cheap one< trades at a material discount to the S&P 500 due to lower growth characteristics and concerns about the duration of the cycle. Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
If US Treasuries would the stock market, the current drawdown for long for the stock market in history
Source: Michael Gayed
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation
“We’re going to have a debt crisis in this country (...) How fast it transpires, I think, is going to be a function of that supply-demand issue, so I’m watching that very closely.” Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%. “I think you’re going to get a meaningful slowing of the economy,” Dalio said. Source: CNBC
A lot of US banks deposits are going into money market funds which saw a $6.3 billion inflow last week, up to $5.64 trillion
Money market funds paying 5%+ interest rates have become the new safety trade. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter Activate to view larger image,
US Housing | The National Association of Realtors’ index of contract signings tumbled 7.1% to 71.8 from July, the group reported Thursday
The decline was larger than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. *US AUG. PENDING HOME SALES FALL 7.1% M/M; EST. DOWN 1% *US AUG. PENDING HOME SALES FALL 18.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR Source: Bloomberg
Very strange to see the US spending like we are in a recession while calling for a "soft landing."
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, the US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2. Deficit spending alone is a massive 6% of GDP per year. Since the debt ceiling crisis, the US has been borrowing ~$14 billion PER DAY to cover deficit spending. By 2033, Bloomberg projects deficit spending will be ~7% of GDP... Source: CBO, The Kobeissi Letter
US 10 year yields keep rising in tandem with oil
WTI oil now trades at $93.5/bbl. So is oil & inflation fears the only reason for bond yields to move upward? Probably not. The fact that real yields are also on the rise shows that inflation is not the only culprit. Investors are adjusting to the reality of rates staying high for longer than expected. They are also requesting positive real yield to get compensated for being invested in US treasuries at the time the US Treasury is issuing massive amount of debt while the FED keeps shrinking its balance sheet through QT. Source chart: Bloomberg
The Total US Bond Market ETF now has a negative return over the last 7 years. $BND
Source: Charlie Bilello
