A net 51% of US Banks are now tightening their lending standards, the highest since 2020 and at levels that have coincided with recessionary periods in the past
Source: Charlie Bilello
From Wall Street to Main Street (aka workers want a bigger piece of the cake) => UAW members go on strike at three key auto plants after deal deadline passes
Half of US auto production is going offline tomorrow. - Thousands of United Auto Workers members went on strike at three key plants, after Detroit automakers failed to reach deals with the union by a Thursday night deadline. - The selected plants produce highly profitable vehicles for the automakers that largely continue to be in high-demand. About 12,700 workers – 5,800 at Stellantis, 3,600 at GM and 3,300 at Ford – will be on strike at the plants in total, the union said. The UAW represents about 146,000 workers across Ford, GM and Stellantis. Source: Goldman, CNBC
US government spending increased 9% over the last year while tax receipts declined 8%. What a luxury...
Source: Charlie Bilello
While Germany is deindustrializing US construction spending on manufacturing is going thru the roof. Viel glück Deutschland...
Source: Michael A. Arouet
While China has been offloading US Treasuries for 10+ years, the rate has accelerated
Both Canada and Mexico also now account for a higher % of US imports than China. These stories belong to the "new normal": the East-West divide, reshoring / nearshoring / friendshoring, etc. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Goldman expects the resumption of student loan payments, a potential temporary federal government shutdown, and reduced auto production from a potential UAW strike to slow US GDP growth in 4Q23
Source graphic: GS
Thankfully, the US is a country where the President has very little impact on the stock market
Stocks tend to go up during most presidencies, regardless of who is in power. Key takeaway: Don't mix politics with your portfolio. Source: Charlie Bilello
US CORE CPI LITTLE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED => A FED PAUSE IS LIKELY BUT NO RATE CUT ANYTIME SOON
Consensus expected a reacceleration of Headline inflation (+0.6% MoM after +0.2% in July) and a stabilisation of “core” inflation (+0.2% MoM after +0.16% in July). Key actual numbers are the following: ON A SEQUENTIAL BASIS (MoM) Headline inflation numbers are in-line with expectations (+0.6%). That is the biggest MoM since June 2022 and the second straight monthly increase in CPI...The energy index rose 5.6% in August after increasing 0.1% in July. There was a big turn-around in airline fares. They rose 4.9% after dropping 8.1% in each of the previous two months. But the gasoline index dominated with an increase of 10.6 percent in August, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.
