The vix (S&P 500 implied volatility) is now back above 50 (extreme fear).
The move index (30Y Treasuries implied volatility) is also skyrocketing... What's going on here? If volatility and market stress stay too high for too long, the risk of a financial accident is real. Source: TradingView
😨 What is the SOFR 3Y Swap spread trying to tell us???
➡️ The SOFR 3Y swap spread refers to the difference between the 3-year U.S. Treasury yield and the fixed leg of a 3-year SOFR interest rate swap. SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) is a benchmark interest rate based on overnight loans collateralized by U.S. Treasuries. It replaced LIBOR as the primary benchmark for U.S. dollar interest rate derivatives. 🔍 Why does it matter? 👉 A positive spread suggests higher credit/liquidity risk in the swap market relative to Treasuries. 👉 A negative spread can suggest technical factors, strong demand for Treasuries, or dislocations in the market. 🔴 Powell may pretend he doesn't need to get involved, but the market is about to force him doing so... Source: zerohedge
US tariffs on China are set to SKYROCKET off the charts:
If China does not withdraw its 34% tariff increase the US will impose ADDITIONAL 50% tariffs on China from April 9. This would bring the US effective tariff rate on China to ~108% on top of the previously announced 58%. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
CEA (Council of Economic Advisors at the White House) Chairman Stephen Miran says USD reserve asset status is a problem.
The Trump administration may move to purposely dismantle dollar hegemony. Source: Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Well said by Peter Mallouk
"It’s been a rough year so far for US equity markets, but we’ve been through much worse in the past and gotten through it. We’ll get through this as well. As Abraham Lincoln once said: This, too, shall pass.”
Oups! When the trade war clashes with the yield war..
It seems that china is ready to retaliate by weaponizing US Treasuries‼️As the US threatens to impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th, China responds by selling another $50BN in Treasuries ‼️Oh by the way, the hashtag#yield on 10Ys is now almost unchanged from Liberation Day! 😨 Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Trump now threatens China with 104% tariffs!
Trump is now threatening China with FURTHER 50% tariffs if China does not withdraw its 34% by today. 😱 104% tariff on China in 24 hours if no deal.
Will global sovereign bond yields soon catch-up with UST yields?
As highlighted by Mohamed El Erian >>> "The markets' initial reaction has been to focus on the likely US growth slowdown, thereby narrowing the yield differential of the US relative to other advanced economies and weakening the dollar. It is only a matter of time until markets realize that the "beta" of the rest of the world to lower US growth is much closer to 1, if not above 1. You know, it's the old saying: When the US catches a cold, the rest of the world risks something much worse". Source: FT
