US smallcaps #Russell2000 is officially in bear market
First time since 2022
The list is out...
34% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON CHINA 20% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION
➡️ Liberation Day announcement brings US tariffs to levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley.
➡️ Rough estimate of ~1.2% drag to US growth if they persist, before any retaliatory tariffs. ➡️ ~300bln/year revenue raise. ➡️ Canada & Mexico outcome is better than expected. ➡️ Europe & Japan is worse. Source: Bob Elliott
Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate the US charges on around $3T of imported goods will now go up to 22%- the highest in a century
But remember, this is NOT a final number. Many things can happen. - China could negotiate a deal (or try to absorb the shock via more stimulus and weakening of the Yuan) - The EU could chose to retaliate - and the US escalates... - How will the rest of the world respond is very uncertain as well Expect a new high in the economic uncertainty index and lots of volatility ahead Source: chart: Bianco Research
JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
Uncertainty during uncertain time...
Source: Bloomberg
What's your favorite US mega-cap here?
Source: Bespoke
Is Trump's plan to reshore manufacturing already working?
This is the biggest increase in manufacturing jobs since October 22, which was followed by a 2 year manufacturing recession. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
