Richmond Fed asked companies how the plan to respond to tariffs.
Strong majority plan to raise prices... Source: Dario Perkins @darioperkins on X
Worst quarter for US stocks relative to the rest of the world in 23 years
Source: Bloomberg Opinion, www.zerohedge.com
A MIND-BLOWING chart:
The US budget deficit is set to average 6.3% over the next 30 years. This would be higher than any other period outside of major crises and wars. This also would be 2.5 percentage points above the past 50-year average... Source: Global Markets Investor
The global economy is currently benefiting from massive tariff front-running, as evidenced by the surge in imports to the US.
This has temporarily propped up production in places like Europe, Canada, and China. Will the floor fall out this week? Source: BCA, Peter Berezin on X
Goldman Sachs raises U.S. Recession odds to 35%
Source: Barchart
In Trump's first term, there was no discernible rise in inflation or drag on growth. Why?
👉 The answer lies in what economists call "currency offset." The dollar moved up by almost the exact amount as the tariffs did. After-tariff USD import prices didn't move. ➡️ Could we see something similar during Trump 2nd term? As mentioned by Lawrence McDonald on X, the context is different this time: Tariffs and inflation during Trump's first term - were after a long period of - a) global austerity, b) secular stagnation and c) Brexit's impact on the global economy. Tariffs and Inflation during Trump's 2nd term are taking place after a $16T fiscal and monetary overdosing... Source. Lawrence McDonald on X, Stephen Miran
Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments
Source: Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart, Bloomberg
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 2.8% in February & remains well above their 2% target that has yet to be achieved.
Here are the details 👇 YoY Growth: PCE (Feb), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.5%) Core PCE, 2.8% Vs. 2.7% Est. (prev. 2.6%) MoM Growth: PCE (Feb), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.4% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) ➡️ The market is expecting the Fed to hold rates steady again at their next meeting on May 7 (at 4.25-4.50%). Source: Charlie Bilello
