JUST IN: US JOB DATA RELEASED!
Nonfarm Payrolls, 177K Vs. 138K Est. (prev. 228K) Unemployment Rate, 4.2% Vs. 4.2% Est. (prev. 4.2%) Hourly Earnings, 3.8% Vs. 3.9% Est. (prev. 3.8%) ▶️ The US labor market has remained resilient in April. No visible impact of the tariff announcement on employment dynamics (yet?) ▶️ The US economy added 177k new jobs in April (138k expected) after 185k in March. ▶️ February and March data were revised lower (-58k overall) but remain on a decent trend, consistent with a stable unemployment rate. ▶️ As a result, the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2% (as expected). ▶️ Wage growth slowed down slightly, to +0.2% from +0.3% (+0.3% expected). Hourly earnings are up +3.8% YoY, stable compared to the previous month. Source: Bloomberg
🔴 U.S. AND UKRAINE LAUNCH RECONSTRUCTION & MINERALS DEAL
▶️ The United States and Ukraine have officially established the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, giving American companies priority access to develop Ukraine's valuable natural resources. The agreement grants the US privileged access to investment projects for Ukraine's aluminum, graphite, oil, and natural gas reserves as part of broader reconstruction efforts. ▶️Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "Thanks to President Trump's tireless efforts to secure a lasting peace, I am glad to announce this historic economic partnership agreement between the United States and Ukraine." Source: U.S. Treasury Department, @sentdefender thru Mario Nawfal
US earnings expectations versus US economic growth surprises dichotomy
▶️ While macro growth expectations continue to fade, EPS expectations are down only modestly (and actually starting to inflect modestly higher in the last couple of days)... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
UPDATE: Weekly jobless claims jump to 241,000, higher than expected
Source: Stocktwits
TRUMP: THE BIGGEST BILL IN AMERICAN HISTORY IS COMING
No tax on tips, no tax on Social security, no tax on overtime. "In the coming weeks and months, we will pass the largest tax cuts in American history and that will include no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime. It's called the One Big Beautiful Bill, and it will be the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history. It will include the biggest tax cuts, regulation cuts, military supremacy, and just about everything else." Source: @RapidResponse47 thru Mario Nawfal, FoxNews
UPS has said it will cut 20,000 jobs this year and close more than 70 buildings
as the logistics group seeks to reduce costs and prepare for a halving in package volume from Amazon, its biggest customer. The job cuts will target workers responsible for delivering packages to customers and supporting UPS’s transportation and logistics services, and come after the group last year cut about 14,000 jobs, primarily in management roles. The latest reduction in headcount is part of UPS’s plan to boost efficiency and consolidate its US domestic network after it said in January it had reached an agreement in principle with its “largest customer” to lower its volume by the second half of 2026.
The Market Ear
EURUSD longer term chart right at the big negative trend line. The 200 weekly moving average is sloping negatively still...and the FX pair has done nothing since 2015. FX is a relative game, but getting excited about the euro here looks like a late short term trade
Container bookings from China to the US are falling sharply ⚠️
Source: Markets & Mayhem, FT
