Market-implied US recession chance: 23% (within the next year)
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, Goldman Sachs
Trump’s first 100 days: the biggest stock winners and losers.
🚀 Winners: $PLTR | Palantir +57% $PM | Philip Morris +39% $DG | Dollar General +36% $VRSN | Verisign +31% $NEM | Newmont +30% $NFLX | Netflix +29% 😨 Losers: $DECK | Deckers Outdoor -48% $TER | Teradyne -44% $ZBRA | Zebra -40% $ALB | Albemarle -40% $DAL | Delta Airlines -36% $UAL | United Airlines -36% Source: The Future Investors
Correlations among US stocks, bonds, dollar are at the highest level since at least 2019 - Piper Sandler
Source: Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS
⚠️MASSIVE amount of US household wealth has been lost:
US household equity wealth has likely dropped by $ TRILLION year-to-date, the most in 3 YEARS. This may lead to further pullback in consumer spending as the top 10% account for 50% of total consumer expenditures. Source: BofA
Worst net US earnings revisions since 2020!
Source: Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart
🚨The US stock market $SPY is now the 2nd worst out of 45 country ETFs since President Trump's term began in January.
The US is down 14% versus the average country that's up 3.7%. Germany $EWG is outperforming the US by 25 percentage points.🚨 Source: Bespoke
US inflation expectations continue to climb…
In April, 1-year inflation expectations surged by 1.7 percentage points to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 (h/t @KobeissiLetter), Augur infinity
Dollar Crashes On Powell Removal Speculation, Gold Soars To All Time High And Bitcoin Suddenly Spikes
The result is that while bitcoin had generally tracked the DXY Dollar index lower for much of 2025, the last few weeks - and certainly Sunday night - have seen a very tangible snap in this relationship. Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
