Nice visual of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Source: WinSmart
Short-term pain for long-term gain ???
Trump has mentioned both falling bond yields and a goal of balancing the budget… There will be an “adjustment period” and “some disturbance.” He is really going for it.
TRUMP 2025: LONGEST FIRST ADDRESS TO CONGRESS IN HISTORY
Trump just delivered a 1 hour and 39-minute speech at his 2025 Joint Address to Congress, making it the longest first address in U.S. history. Reagan’s 1981 speech lasted 32 minutes, Clinton spoke for 60 minutes in 1993, Obama went for 51 minutes in 2009, and Biden hit 64 minutes in 2021. Trump’s own 2017 address clocked in at 60 minutes. Now, he’s set a new record, delivering a speech packed with policy, priorities, and unmistakable Trump energy. Source: C-SPAN
Ray Dalio: debt crisis could cause 'economic heart attack' for US economy in the next 3 years
In an interview with Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast published Monday, Dalio said the US is on the brink of experiencing an "economic heart attack" within the next three years if the administration does not commit to actively reducing the deficit, which now makes up about 7.5% of GDP.
🔴 TRUMP & TSMC TO ANNOUNCE MASSIVE $100B U.S. CHIP INVESTMENT
Trump and TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, are set to unveil a $100B investment in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing over four years. This expands on TSMC’s $65B Arizona site, which began mass production in 2024, and is fueled by the 2022 CHIPS Act’s $6.6B grant and tax incentives. With AI, smartphones, and military tech at stake, the move aims to counter Taiwan’s 90% grip on advanced chips. Source: WSJ thru Mario Nawfal on X
‼️ Alert: Unconfirmed reports that President Trump will announce that the US is leaving NATO in his joint address to US Congress tomorrow!
Source: US Homeland Security News @defense_civil25 on X
A clear message from the market:
Cyclicals vs defensives peaked in late January, with underperformance accelerating in mid-February. If you add to this the inverted 3m-10y yield curve, the odds of recession are on the rise. Source: Bloomberg, RBC
U.S. households now have the biggest allocation to stocks in history
Source: Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart
