US immigration
Source:: Robin Brooks
Another big move today
US dollar around the start of Trump 1.0 and 2.0
US economic data related to the CONSUMER has surprised to the DOWNSIDE by the most in over 2 years.
This comes as Americans pulled back on spending due to deteriorating labor market conditions and high inflation. 🚨Spending reflects 2/3 of the US GDP. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
2025 returns by country:
Germany +21% Italy +19% France +17% UK +12% US -0.5% Source: Ben Carlson @awealthofcs
"Carmakers in the US rely on Canada and Mexico for more than 80% of imports of some key auto parts...
There’s even US value added embedded in cars imported from Mexico and Canada — so tariffs on these goods mean the US will effectively be tariffing itself." Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon on X, Bloomberg
Nice visual of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Source: WinSmart
Short-term pain for long-term gain ???
Trump has mentioned both falling bond yields and a goal of balancing the budget… There will be an “adjustment period” and “some disturbance.” He is really going for it.
TRUMP 2025: LONGEST FIRST ADDRESS TO CONGRESS IN HISTORY
Trump just delivered a 1 hour and 39-minute speech at his 2025 Joint Address to Congress, making it the longest first address in U.S. history. Reagan’s 1981 speech lasted 32 minutes, Clinton spoke for 60 minutes in 1993, Obama went for 51 minutes in 2009, and Biden hit 64 minutes in 2021. Trump’s own 2017 address clocked in at 60 minutes. Now, he’s set a new record, delivering a speech packed with policy, priorities, and unmistakable Trump energy. Source: C-SPAN
