Syz the moment

Mom-and-pop investors flows into technology stocks have more than DOUBLED in just a few weeks. Institutional investors selling to retail as they chase stocks at record valuations. Meanwhile, individual investors have UNDERperformed the market for 3 years in a row. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs

US government interest expense has gone parabolic in the past few years It has now crossed a staggering $1.1 TRILLION At this rate, it is expected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2034 US debt is now becoming a major concern Source: Bravos Research

... until the government’s debt-ceiling drama is resolved. 👉 Various participants noted it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until resolution of debt ceiling dynamics. 👉 Many participants noted after conclusion of balance sheet runoff it would be appropriate to structure asset purchases to move maturity composition closer to outstanding stock of Treasury debt. 👉 Reserves might decline quickly upon resolution of the debt limit and, at the current pace of balance sheet runoff, might potentially reach levels below those viewed by the Committee as appropriate. 👉 Fed survey respondents forecast balance sheet runoff process concluding by mid-2025, slightly later than previously expected. Source: Bloomberg, TalkMarkets

Source: Bloomberg, Mike Zaccardi

1-Investors are extremely confident that stocks will go up 2-Individual allocation very high 3-Stretched valuation

Source: Barchart

There were 70 US bankruptcy filings in January, in line with the largest monthly number since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes after bankruptcies hit 694 in 2024, the most in 14 YEARS. Bankruptcies are rising as if there is a crisis. Source: Global Markets Investor

But there's a cycle to everything, and international diversification is perhaps more important today than ever before. Source: Peter Mabrouk