Tariffs "cheat sheet" updated
Source: Bloomberg
Trump 2.0 vs. Trump 1.0
The full market picture by Fund Strat Interesting to link this to Trump's comments yesterday on FoxNews: "There could be a little disruption (…) Look, what I have to do is build a strong country. You can't really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100 year perspective. We go by quarters. And you can't go by that”. Not the same kind of Trump's put than in 2017...
Trump:
"There could be a little disruption. Look, what I have to do is build a strong country. You can't really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100 year perspective. We go by quarters. And you can't go by that." Source: Aaron Rupar @atrupar on X
Trump officially signed an executive order to create a Strategic $BTC Bitcoin Reserve.
How $BTC's market cap evolved over time👇 Source: Investing visuals @ZeevyInvesting
Equity markets are fearful of far more than some marginal tariff tensions.
Macro data this week broadly speaking reinforced the growth scare (red line below) while inflation anxiety is back way up... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The US labour market is on recession alert as job market cools with large discrepancies between establishment survey and household survey.
👉 The establishment survey showed 151,000 new jobs in Feb, LESS than expected. 👉 According to the household survey, 588,000 jobs were cut in Feb, which is why the unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, although the participation rate has also fallen from 62.6% to 62.4%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: US February NFP lower than expected!
➡️ Nonfarm Payrolls 151K (est. 160K, prev. 125K) ➡️ Private Nonfarm Payrolls 140K (est. 142K, prev. 81K) ➡️ Unemployment rate 4.1% (est. 4.0%, prev. 4.0%) ➡️ Average hourly earnings YoY 4.0% (est. 4.1%, prev. 3.9%) ➡️ Labor force participation 62.4% (est. 62.6%, prev. 62.6%) Source: Jayanth Ukwaththa on X, US Bureau of Statistics
WATCH CREDIT SPREADS‼️
US high yield spreads (in green) are starting to tick up, but not to the extent of the Economic Uncertainty Index nor the Vix (in red). If credit weakens, then we know we are in trouble... Source: Bloomberg, RBC
