The US government RECESSION has begun:
Government + quasi-government education & health job addition accounts for ~70% of all payroll creation, down from ~85% in Feb 2024. It is expected this will fall even further in the coming months, meaning non-farm payrolls will weaken. Source: BofA
BREAKING - US INFLATION DATA RELEASED - Core PCE YoY 2.6% - lowest since March 2021
BULLISH! YoY Growth: PCE (Jan), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.6%) Core PCE, 2.6% Vs. 2.6% Est. (prev. 2.8%) MoM Growth: PCE (Jan), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.2%) Source: @CyclesWithBach, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
US equities now have the highest CAPE ratio globally.
More importantly: The tech sector alone is at a staggering ~60x CAPE. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
U.S. pending home sales have fallen to a new all-time low
Worse than Covid. Worse than 2008. Source: Bloomberg
The End of the Trump Trade?
When Donald Trump won the election on November 5, the so-called "Trump trades" surged—Tesla, crypto, tech, oil, and banks all rallied. But since Trump officially took office on January 20—and especially over the past week—these trades have started to unwind. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
DOGE DEFLATIONARY EFFECTS?
Bloomberg Economics estimates that if hashtag#DOGE attempts to go for savings of $600B/year, GDP could take a -2% hit by the end of this year, the unemployment rate could rise by nearly a percentage point, and CPI y/y could fall by nearly 0.9 percentage points. Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon on X
🚨US budget deficit is SKYROCKETING: The US borrowed $838 billion in the first 4 months of Fiscal Year 2025, or $7 BILLION A DAY.
This is $306bn HIGHER than the corresponding period last year, according to CBO👇 Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
🚨Cash is TRASH, according to US equity funds:
Cash allocation of US equity funds has declined to just ~1.5%, the lowest on RECORD. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has never been greater. This creates downside risk Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
