Fund Managers just rotated OUT OF U.S. Stocks at the fastest pace in history
source :BofA
How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis. Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months. 32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months. In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months. In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time. Can we avoid a recession this time? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Lots of things have happened since this cover page by The Economist (October 2024)...
According to the BofA Fund Manager Survey, 69% of investors believe that US exceptionalism has peaked... Have we moved from one extreme to another ????
The us stock market was celebrating St. Patrick’s day today. First green close for S&P on a Monday in 4 weeks...
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz, Yahoo Finance
Interesting list
Source: QE Infinity
Riskier credit markets are starting to respond more significantly to the dislocation in US equity markets
Spreads on high-yield bonds rose the most since August yesterday. They're still relatively low on a historical basis, but the trajectory is catching many people's attention. Source: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1, Bloomberg
U.S. TARIFFS CHEAT SHEET
Source: Wall St Engine @wallstengine, Bloomberg
🚨US inflation rate is FALLING as expected and there is more to come:
US CPI Core Inflation dropped to 3.1% in February, the lowest in 4 YEARS. Supercore CPI fell to 3.9%, the lowest since October 2023 (driven by Airfares). All metrics came below forecasts. Expect more progress as economy slows. Source: zerohedge
