The $VIX currently stands at 12.07, its lowest close since November 2019
Soruce: Charlie Bilello
Record Low: Equity/Bonds Volatility Ratio Hits Unprecedented Levels!
The divergence between two widely recognized measures of volatility, the VIX index for Equity and the MOVE index for Rates, continues to be stark. In the U.S., equity volatility has reached new lows for 2023, while volatility in U.S. Treasuries remains persistently high. Calculating the ratio between the VIX and MOVE indexes reveals a significant trend—the lowest point since 1994/1995! Anticipate dynamic shifts in 2024! 📈 #MarketTrends #VolatilityAnalysis #Outlook2024
Some investors are worried about VIX index being too low, i.e markets are too complacent
The chart below is a good reminder that a "low VIX" is a normal part of bull markets. Investors seem to always forget this. Source: Mark Ungewitter, Ryan Detrick
Below the average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
Source: TME, GS
Record-Low Volatility in the US Credit Market! 📉🌐
Amidst ongoing rate volatility (MOVE index) showing a persistent high, albeit with a decreasing trend over the past two months, the volatility in credit markets has taken a different turn. Currently, volatility in US Investment Grade (IG) corporate bonds has reached levels not seen since 2021, hovering close to record lows. Additionally, the volatility in US High Yield (HY) has experienced a significant drop in the past month. With low volatility and tight credit spreads, the question arises: Is there still room to extract excess returns from the US credit market in 2024? 🤔 Source: Bloomberg #CreditMarkets #Volatility #FinanceInsights
Today is the BIG DAY with Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings results after the bell
With the Nasdaq up more than 13% from the lows, $NVDA at all-time-high, 95% of sell-side analysts with a BUY rating on $NVDA (!) sentiment of AI probably at record optimistic level after Microsoft "aqui-hire" of openai and the $VIX historically low at 13.5, there is indeed room for a short-term pullback... Source: www.investing.com, kakashiii111
As stocks tumbled, the VIX soared
And after 105 consecutive days of closing below 20, the longest streak since 2019, the VIX index finally closed above 20 - in fact above 21 - breaking the streak on day 106. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
WIth the Vix <17, Brent oil<$90/bbl and S&P 500>4350, do you feel that risk is currently mispriced?
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
