Interest Rate Volatility Drops Below 100 for the First Time in 6 Months!
The #MOVE index, a key measure of US #interestrate #volatility, has dropped below 100 for the first time since September 2023. This marks a significant shift in market dynamics. While attempts to breach this threshold have been made three times since early 2022, they were short-lived, with volatility bouncing back above 100 each time. For the past two years, the #government #bond market has been in a high volatility regime, making investing in long-term US #Treasuries challenging due to relatively low adjusted yield to volatility. The question now is whether this high volatility regime is coming to an end or if it's just another false alarm. Several indicators suggest that this could be another false signal. Growing uncertainty surrounding #inflation in the US may prompt the #Fed to adjust its monetary policy, potentially implementing a reverse operation twist (and thus steepen the yield curve). Additionally, there's still a positive #carry from #shorting bonds. However, signs of improvement are emerging as well. Recent #auctions have shown that the market is absorbing the supply effectively, and the #correlation between bonds and equities is turning negative again. Could this be a pivotal moment in the US Treasuries market? Let's keep a close eye on how things unfold. Source: Bloomberg #fixedincome #bond
There were winners today...
VIX 17 call expiring tomorrow (Wednesday) was basically worthless earlier today... Source: TME, Refinitiv
VIX panic kicking in.
VIX has not closed here since the melt up started in late October 2023. You do not compare volatility to trending assets over time, but the shorter term chart shows a clear picture. VIX panic is here. Source: TME, Refinitiv
“Volmageddon” is not a Word in the Dictionary.
This term is a blend of "volatility" and "Armageddon," and it refers to a significant and sudden increase in market volatility. It specifically references an event on February 5, 2018, when the stock market experienced a sharp increase in volatility.The previous time the skew reached such a low level was on that exact day, mere hours before Volmageddon caused the VIX to skyrocket, moving it from a serene level of 14 to a heightened state of 40. source : zerohedge
A Trader bought 50,000 CBOE Volatility Index $VIX April expiry 50 strike calls for $0.21 which is a total premium of just over $1 million.
Source: Barchart
Average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
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CBOE Volatility Index $VIX jumps to highest level in more than 2 months
Source: Barchart
The volatility index, $VIX, is up 14% to kick off the first trading day of 2024. This puts the $VIX on track for its biggest daily jump since October 13th
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
