Low-volatility regimes can last longer than you think.
Source: Mark Ungewitter
The return of volatility
Source: Bloomberg
The death of volatility? VIX, VXN and VXTLT are all printing new recent lows, hitting levels not seen in years.
Source: Bloomberg, The Market Ear
NO FEAR... CBOE Volatility Index $VIX closed at its lowest level since January 23!
Source: barchart
$VVIX just made its lowest close in about 8 years
What is the Cboe VVIX Index? Volatility is often called a new asset class, and every asset class deserves its own volatility index. The Cboe VVIX IndexSM represents the expected volatility of the VIX®. VVIX derives the expected 30-day volatility of VIX by applying the VIX algorithm to VIX options. Source: Swordfishvegetable
As shown by Jeroen Blokland >>> The Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is down 48% since April 2020.
This means investors have realized a negative return of 15% annually on long-duration bonds over the last four years. Moreover, this 'return' was realized with structurally higher volatility and, on average, a positive correlation with stocks. It also means the market for long-duration bonds has to double(!) to erase losses. Source: Jeroen Blokland
CBOE Volatility Index $VIX surges to highest level of fear since Halloween 👻🎃
Source: Barchart
The volatility index, $VIX, spiked 23% this week, the largest weekly jump since September 2023.
It also marked the highest weekly $VIX close since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Dow posted its worst week of 2024 so far. This week, we will receive crucial inflation data including CPI and PPI inflation. If CPI inflation rises again, it will mark the 3rd straight monthly increase in inflation. Will the VIX continue to increase? Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
