Yesterday’s FOMC statement, interpreted through a large language model, was the most dovish since 2021.
Source: Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity
Activist investor Cevian Capital has said it is “not viable” to run a large international bank from Switzerland due to new strict capital proposals
Unless the position changes UBS would have “no other realistic option” but to leave the country. Cevian is Europe’s largest dedicated activist investor and holds about 1.4 per cent of UBS’s shares. It added that the government proposals, which would force the bank to have as much as $26bn in extra capital, could not be meaningfully changed through lobbying efforts. “The board has the responsibility to ensure that UBS protects its competitiveness,” Lars Förberg, Cevian’s co-founder, told the Financial Times. “Under the current proposals, it is not viable to run a big international bank from Switzerland. We therefore see no other realistic option but to leave.” He added: “The message from the Federal Council is clear: UBS is too big for Switzerland . . . I respect the Federal Council’s decision, but I do not understand it. It cannot be undone. Lobbyists cannot change that either. That effort can be spared.” Link to article: https://lnkd.in/ekU4KnUE
Despite some hawkish comments during the Press conference (the "risk management cut"), the Fed now seems more worried about the job market than inflation.
Next job data will be key. Source: zerohedge
As highlighted by Jim Bianco, isn't the "Fed consensus" just an illusion?
See the labels in the dot plot below: one member of the FOMC thinks the Fed is going to HIKE rates this year. One (Stephen Miran) thinks it is going to cut 1.25% this year (5 cuts over two meetings). And see the spread of dots above (from highest to lowest), the FOMC is showing little to no agreement on what they should do. So on one hand there is an 11-1 vote On the other hand they published a wide dot plot... Add to this is Powell using the term "Risk Management" to describe this cut... It could thus be that "Risk Management" cut is a political decision. As Jim Bianco said "he wants to get Trump off his back". Source: Bianco Research
While everyone is moving away from humans towards ai, hedge fund giant de shaw is doing the opposite and launching its first ever fund run by humans, not ai.
DE Shaw is raising as much as $5 Billion in its first Hedge Fund run by humans. The D.E. Shaw Cogence Fund will trade stocks and credit. Source: Bloomberg, Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07, Gurgavin
In case you missed it... 30-Year US Mortgage Rate plunges to 6.49%, the lowest level in almost 12 months
Source: Barchart
Institutional investors are the most bullish since the February peak in stocks and no longer see a trade war as the biggest risk.
According to Bank of America’s September fund manager survey (covering $426bn AUM), risk appetite is back at its highest since Feb 2025, when the S&P 500 last hit an intermediate peak : The trade war narrative is fading. Optimism is rising. Risk is back on. source : BofA
Mystery Trader Makes Record Bet On 50bps Rate Cut Today
The trade took place in the October fed funds, for an amount of 84,000 contracts which is equivalent to $3.5 million per basis point in risk. the price and timing of the trade was consistent with a buyer, potentially indicating a hedge against a half-point rate cut at Wednesday’s policy meeting, given a quarter-point cut is now fully baked into the swaps market. The CME confirmed this was the largest ever block trade in Fed Funds Futures... Source. zerohedge
