From yesterday's Financial Times article, “EU economy falls behind global rivals due to complacency.”
“One year on, Europe is . . . in a harder place,” Draghi told a news conference on Tuesday. “Our growth model is fading. Vulnerabilities are mounting . . . and we have been reminded, painfully, that inaction threatens not only our competitiveness but our sovereignty itself.” “Too often, excuses are made for this slowness. We say it is simply how the EU is built. Sometimes inertia is even presented as respect for the rule of law,” Draghi added. “That is complacency.” https://lnkd.in/e3facfZk
In the US, searches for "help with mortgage" surpass 2008 housing crisis.
Source: Polymarket @Polymarket
As highlighted by @AndreasSteno on X, the credit impulse is turning positive.
That is not what you normally see in a slowdown...
Quote of the day
by Compounding Quality
From the FT article "Switzerland’s US tech ‘whale’"
>>> https://lnkd.in/e5ctdeTq "Switzerland’s conservative Central Bank has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, amassing a stock portfolio that is equivalent in value to nearly a fifth of the national economy’s annual output. The Swiss National Bank has US equity holdings amounting to $167bn, spread across more than 2,300 positions, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings from June. More than $42bn is invested in just five companies, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia, making it a major Silicon Valley investor. Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn. Though not a sovereign wealth fund, the SNB’s $855bn balance sheet of assets, including its tech holdings, put it in a similar league as some of the world’s largest state investment vehicles, including those of Singapore and Qatar". Source: FT, IMD
Happy FOMC day.
Stocks: all-time high Home Prices: all-time high Gold: all-time high Money Supply: all-time high National Debt: all-time high CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" Time for the Fed to cut rates. Let's get this party started. Source: Trend Spider
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion
The US economy is running HOT. But the fed is going to cut rates... Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Since a 25bps rate cut is fully priced in, the main focus for markets will be whether the median 2025 dot shows 50bp or 75bp of cuts
With little change in the macro forecasts - for now - Bank of America thinks the 2025 median will continue to show 50bp of cuts, even as the distribution of dots moves down. Alternatively, Goldman now expects 75bps of rate cuts this year and another 50 next year. Clearly, it's all a close call for now. The dot plot should then show one more 25bp cut in 2027, although with Powell on his way out in May 2026 all bets are off regarding the longer horizon. The longer-run median is likely to stay at 3.0%. With that in mind, here is what Bank of America thinks the names behind tomorrow's dots will look like. Of particular interest will be the Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran dots. Source: BofA
