If the 34% tariff is on top of previous tariffs, China's average tariff rate is up 54 ppts this year, swamping what was done in President Trump's first term.
Question: How will China react? If China devalues the Yuan, that could trigger a major risk-off across the world... Source: Robin Brooks
JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
Despite the pullback, the S&P 500 is still NOT cheap:
As shown below, the US stock market is expensive or very expensive on 12 out of 13 valuation indicators, according to Charles Schwab analysis. Metrics like 5-year normalized P/E, P/B or Shiller's CAPE are still historically elevated despite the sell-off. Source: Charles Schwab, The Leuthold Group, Bloomberg thru Global Markets Investor
Physical gold craziness...
The big 3 vaults (Brinks, JPM, HSBC), are running out of space where to store the physical; the 3 alone hold more than 35 million oz of physical.
ISM Manufacturing Priced Paid at 69.4 - Highest since inflation's peak in June 2022
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
On April 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports, the model now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025. Just 2 months ago, they saw GDO growing by +3.8% in the same period...
Bull markets that make it past the two-year mark have typically consolidated in year three before heading higher again.
Source: Bespoke
The Truflation US YoY inflation rate dropped from 1.76% to 1.38% — a considerable decline driven by key categories.
Which categories and sub-categories are driving the drop? 👉 Housing – all 3 subcategories are cooling: • Rented dwellings • Owned dwellings • Other lodging 👉 Transport – vehicle prices and other vehicle expenses are falling, even as gasoline edges up. Truflation continues to capture shifts in inflation dynamics in real time — well ahead of official data. Reminder: Over the past 3 months, the Truflation index has dropped from 3.11% to 1.38%. Is the Fed paying attention?
