S&P 500 PULLBACK
If the current pullback is going to devolve into a correction, it should happen relatively quickly. Historically, 76% of S&P 500 corrections play out w/i a 60-day window (mid-April). About half are done in <40 days (late-March). Source: 3F Research Group, Warren Pies @WarrenPies on X
The US labour market is on recession alert as job market cools with large discrepancies between establishment survey and household survey.
👉 The establishment survey showed 151,000 new jobs in Feb, LESS than expected. 👉 According to the household survey, 588,000 jobs were cut in Feb, which is why the unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, although the participation rate has also fallen from 62.6% to 62.4%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: US February NFP lower than expected!
➡️ Nonfarm Payrolls 151K (est. 160K, prev. 125K) ➡️ Private Nonfarm Payrolls 140K (est. 142K, prev. 81K) ➡️ Unemployment rate 4.1% (est. 4.0%, prev. 4.0%) ➡️ Average hourly earnings YoY 4.0% (est. 4.1%, prev. 3.9%) ➡️ Labor force participation 62.4% (est. 62.6%, prev. 62.6%) Source: Jayanth Ukwaththa on X, US Bureau of Statistics
🚨HOLY COW: Hedge funds dumped global stocks at the fastest pace on RECORD over the last 2 weeks.
The majority of sales were in US equities and were even larger than during the 2022 BEAR MARKET. Meanwhile, sp500 and Nasdaq 100 are down 'just' 6% and 9% since their peaks. Source: Global Markets Investor
Italy's bond yield just crossed 4%! Thanks to Germany's embracement of debt to invest in defense and infrastructure.
Who remember what happened in 2011/2012? At the time the debt to GDP ratio was 108%. Today it is 140%... Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
It's official: the 2nd longest uptrend in the history of the Nasdaq 100 Index has ended with the first close below the 200-day moving average in nearly 2 years
Source: Charlie Bilello
Roughly 80% of the stocks in the SP500 said the word tariffs on their last earnings call
Source: Evan on X
WATCH CREDIT SPREADS‼️
US high yield spreads (in green) are starting to tick up, but not to the extent of the Economic Uncertainty Index nor the Vix (in red). If credit weakens, then we know we are in trouble... Source: Bloomberg, RBC
