Probably nothing
Source: Bianco Research L.L.C.
Should we get prepared for a choppy quarter???
The S&P 500 has gained ~1.0% on average in the first quarter after a US presidential election since 1950. It also historically comes with elevated volatility as market swings widen to both directions. On average, the first year of a new presidential cycle has seen an 8.2% average return. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, J-C Parets
Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital and one of the world's most respected value investors, is cautioning about froth in the market and believes we are due for either:
1) a large correction in the market OR 2) 10-year returns of between +2 and -2% Source: Barchart
Markets are heating up Nasdaq just posted its single largest daily volume in HISTORY with 13.4 BILLION shares traded yesterday.
This beats the previous record of 11.9 billion shares on May 16th, 2024. Source: Barchart
A classic Meta to End Fact-Checking Program in Shift Ahead of Trump Term
Source: TrendSpider
Today's market chaos was brought to you by strong eco data (ISM Services headline and JOLTS), a scary Prices Paid print (two year high), and the return of Trump press conference-driven vol.
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Trend Spider
How much longer can this continue before the crocodile's mouth snaps shut?
(S&P 500 in green vs. US 10-year inverted in RED) Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
BREAKING: The dollar dropped and stocks surge after the Washington Post reported that Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariffs that would apply to every country, but only cover critical imports
See the kink to our 10 surprises 2025 (surprise #1: Trump 2.1 "(...) What if concerns over the inflationary effects of tariffs prompt him to pivot, adopting a more conciliatory approach with trading partners—a shift from Trump 2.0 to Trump 2.1): https://lnkd.in/eKXRsc58 Source: MenthorQ, Bloomberg
