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21 Sep 2023

SNB unexpectedly leaves policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Swiss national bank unexpectedly leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Market was estimating the probability of a 25bps hike at more than 70% yesterday.
USDCHF broke the 200 daily moving average of 0.9036 and now trading higher over 0.9060.
EURCHF also trading higher at 0.9650.

21 Sep 2023

Another Powell Fed Day

Incredible how closely today's action tracked the average. Source: bespoke (read "today" red line as yesterday)

21 Sep 2023

This chart tells the story:

The rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle at 4.7%, meaning investors have sharply trimmed their hopes of interest rate cuts in 2024. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

21 Sep 2023

In case you missed it: German PPI deflation deepened w/PPI down 12,6%, most since the start of the statistic in 1949

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

21 Sep 2023

FED'S POWELL:

"I WOULD NOT CALL SOFT LANDING A BASELINE EXPECTATION"

21 Sep 2023

BREAKING: A HAWKISH PAUSE BY THE FED

FOMC KEEPS RATES UNCHANGED AS EXPECTED BUT MAKES CLEAR THAT HIGHER RATES ARE THE NEW NORMAL...US 2y yields hit highest since 2006 after somewhat hawkish Fed. Bottom-line: #Fed futures now no longer show rate CUTS beginning until September 2024. To put this in perspective, three months ago futures were expecting 4 rate CUTS in 2023. Now, interest rates are expected to PAUSE for at least 1 year... One remark: Fed estimates that r* (the real short-term interest rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable) remains at 0.5%, and yet rates in 2026, when US debt may hit $50 trillion will be 3%. This means that blended interest on US debt will be ~$2 trillion, double where it is now. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter, HolgerZ, www.zerohedge.com

20 Sep 2023

FED leaves rates unchanged, signals one more hike this year

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged while signaling one more hike this year. FOMC repeated language saying officials will determine the “extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.” The FOMC held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, while projections showed 12 of 19 officials favored another rate hike in 2023.

20 Sep 2023

Humility

Source: Strati Georgopoulos

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