Is bitcoin the most resilient asset class of all time?
Despite an unprecedented number of setbacks (Collapse of FTX, a $2 trillion bear market, over 500 lawsuits and regulation cases, multiple crypto lender bankruptcies, Binance fined a record $4.3 billion by US regulators, increased calls for regulation around the globe, etc.), Bitcoin prices hit $43,000 for the first time since April 2022, up 180% since November 2022. Bitcoin is now up ~45% in 6 weeks since speculation of Bitcoin ETF approvals began. Over the last year Bitcoin has added a massive $470 BILLION of market cap. The entire crypto market has added $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
(Source: Bespoke) As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 total return is within 1.1% of its prior all-time high from 1/3/22
In addition to nearing its prior highs, the pattern of the S&P 500 looks a lot like a cup and handle which technicians consider to be a bullish formation. Source: J-C Gand
Record Low: Equity/Bonds Volatility Ratio Hits Unprecedented Levels!
The divergence between two widely recognized measures of volatility, the VIX index for Equity and the MOVE index for Rates, continues to be stark. In the U.S., equity volatility has reached new lows for 2023, while volatility in U.S. Treasuries remains persistently high. Calculating the ratio between the VIX and MOVE indexes reveals a significant trend—the lowest point since 1994/1995! Anticipate dynamic shifts in 2024! 📈 #MarketTrends #VolatilityAnalysis #Outlook2024
Last year, BlackRock launched a spot bitcoin private trust for institutional clients in the United States - see below. This PRIVATE trust was launched in 2022 with coinbase as custodian
The move comes at a time when the global cryptocurrency industry has been caught in the crosshairs of the U.S. securities regulator on alleged violations of securities laws. Could it be that BlackRock has been buying Bitcoin throughout the whole bear market using this PRIVATE trust?
Chinese total private sector debt (level and relative to GDP). This helps explain why Moody's downgraded China's credit rating today...
Source: Longview Economics
The bull market none is talking about. Uranium prices are surging as nuclear is seen as one of the only "clean" energy source to move away from fossil fuels
Source chart: (((The Daily Shot)))
Bitcoin wealth concentration issue: as shown below, 2.08% of existing Bitcoin holders (adresses) owns almost 93% of coins currently in circulation
Is the analysis oversimplified? what will happen if several ETF spot bitcoin ar approved and large asset managers become forced buyers? As show below, a small number of adresses owns the vast majority of BTC currently in circulation. However, some analysts believe that this table is misleading. For instance, glassnode highlighted that the table below does not factor in custodians, lost coins, and wrapped BTC. Adjusting these numbers might get you below 50% of concentration for the top 2% adresses, which is still high but much better than the current global wealth distribution. Still, this raises the question about how big will the supply/demand imbalance be the day several Bictoin spot ETF are approved. Indeed, asset managers will become forced buyers of an asset which is indeed quiet scarce. It is however possible that some "wwhales" might take advantage of rising demand and price increase to offload some of the BTC they have been hodling. Time will tell.
Franco Nevada reaching major support zone
Franco Nevada (FNV US) is in a trading rance 105 - 170 since 2020 ! It's now reaching the lower end 105. Will it rebound once again ? Source : Bloomberg
