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BREAKING: Prediction markets officially price-in 2 interest rate cuts this year after CPI inflation data.
The odds of no cuts have fallen from 33% to 24% over the last few minutes, according to @Kalshi. Meanwhile, market implied odds of exactly 2 rate cuts have spiked from 21% to 35%. Less than 2 months ago, the base case showed 0 rate cuts in 2024 with odds of rate HIKES spiking. 6 months ago, markets showed a base case of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The global debt crisis: Total world governments' debt hit a whopping $315 trillion in Q1 2024, a new all time high.
In Q1 alone, total global debt increased by $1.3 trillion. At the same time, emerging markets debt hit $105 trillion, rising by ~$50 trillion in just a decade with the biggest increase in China. Across developed markets, the US and Japan have added the most debt. Currently, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 333%, just below a record high of 362% in 2021. Debt is becoming the global "solution." Source: The Kobeissi Letter
France 10y risk spread over Germany keeps rising. Jumps to 62bps.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
2024 is a year with an extremely busy election agenda. Don't believe in all what they say..
Source image: Asif Majid
The US is adding almost $100B of deficit PER WEEK
Source: Geiger Capital
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