How do you say CHIPS act* in one chart?
Not all fiscal policy has to be a bad thing... this could indeed lead to a big increase in the productivity we will see over the coming years due to this. Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson * CHIPS Act -> In July 2022, Congress passed the CHIPS Act of 2022 to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing, design and research, fortify the economy and national security, and reinforce America’s chip supply chains. The share of modern semiconductor manufacturing capacity located in the U.S. has eroded from 37% in 1990 to 12% today, mostly because other countries’ governments have invested ambitiously in chip manufacturing incentives and the U.S. government has not. Meanwhile, federal investments in chip research have held flat as a share of GDP, while other countries have significantly ramped up research investments. To address these challenges, Congress passed the CHIPS Act of 2022, which includes semiconductor manufacturing grants, research investments, and an investment tax credit for chip manufacturing. SIA also supports enactment of an investment tax credit for semiconductor design.
As highlighted in the Kobeissi Letter and in the chart below from Tavi Costa >>> Annualized interest expense on US Federal debt is nearing $1.1 TRILLION
To put this in perspective, 2023 defense spending was $821 billion. This means the US is on track to spend 34% MORE on interest expense than defense spending. In 2023, the US government produced $4.4 trillion in revenue. This means that 25% of receipts in the entire 2023 are equivalent to Uncle Sam's annual interest expense. Rising rates and falling tax revenue are both occurring at the same time. A tricky combination
WHO HOLDS AMERICA' DEBT?
Source: WinSmart, The DailyShot
Gold hit record high 2'135.39/oz in early trading hours
Gold surged to a new all-time high as growing expectations for US rate cuts early next year. This latest leg of gold's rally has been turbocharged by comments on Friday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Precious metal's strength has been underpinned buy other factors as purchases by governments and central banks as well as geopolitical uncertainty.
Political position of the largest party in each European country
(map by try.balkan/instagram) Source: OnlMaps
Interesting development highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter:
Is the slowdown in restaurant activity signalling that a FED pivot Indicators of restaurant activity continue to show signs of weakness in the US. Interestingly, this has been almost perfectly correlated with the Fed raising rates. Restaurant activity in the US hit an all time high in August 2021. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, restaurant activity has moved in a straight line lower. As excess savings are depleted and inflation remains an issue, consumers are cutting back. And more credit card debt is not the solution here.
Sentiment is turning bullish. Bears in the AAII sentiment poll moved from over 50% to under 20% during November
This is the lowest bearish % since Jan 2018 (which followed 2017's record 12 straight up months). What changed? Prices. The S&P 500 gained 8.9% in November, one of its best months ever. $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
Global Money Market Funds All-Time High 🚨:
A record high $8.3 Trillion is parked in global money market funds according to Goldman Sachs. $5.73 Trillion of this are U.S. based funds. As global central banks cut rates, could this capital find its way back into equities? Source: Barchart
