FRENCH POLITICS >>>
With 20 days to go to the lower house snap elections, a poll credits Marine Le Pen RN with 34% of the vote, far ahead of the left & far-left coalition and the Macron camp. One election can hide another. No sooner have the results of the European elections been announced than all eyes have turned to the early legislative elections. With 20 days to go to the first round, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for Challenges, M6 and RTL puts the Rassemblement National (RN) well ahead. If the legislative elections had been held today, the Rassemblement National would have won 34% of the vote. A clear improvement on the 18.7% recorded in 2022. Long under-represented in the Assembly, the RN would be the leading force in the lower house. However, as the legislative elections will be held in 577 constituencies over two rounds, it is very difficult to project a precise number of seats. For the time being, it's impossible to know whether the Marinist troops will win an absolute or even a relative majority. Nevertheless, they seem to be well positioned to win the election, especially if they can create a coalition with other right-wing parties and traditional right. A win by RN could lead to a cohabitation with Jordan Bardella (RN) as Prime Minister. Source: Le Figaro
** Regional Banking Crisis Alert! **
**Huntington Bank Spooks Investors Yesterday, Shares Plunged 6%** - **New Guidance:** Net interest income to fall 1% to 4% this year - **Previous Range:** -2% to +2% - **Impact:** Largest drop since March 2023 Source: The Coastal Journal
Foreign investors are piling into US markets:
Foreign holdings of US securities have hit ~$27 trillion in 2023, near the all-time highs seen in 2021. Since 2009, foreign investments in US markets have skyrocketed by 180%. This comes after the S&P 500 has gained 573% during this time materially outperforming other markets such as the EU, Canada, and Japan. Meanwhile, foreign investors’ share of the $78 trillion US equity market has risen to ~17%, an all time record. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Small cap stocks are now down on the year while Large caps are still up 12.5%. $SPY $IWM
Source: Charlie Bilello
Below is an extract of a great chart pack by Topdown Charts / Callum Thomas
https://lnkd.in/eCV4GauM Over the long-run equal-weight has beat cap-weight, but there have been significant punctuations and cycles around that trend that echo important sector themes.
In the first three weeks of May, OpenAI’s ChatGPT averaged 77 million daily visits, putting it on track to reach 2.3 billion visits last month
A new monthly record after setting its previous record of 1.8 billion visits a year ago. Source: Beth Kindig $MSFT $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN
Reckless Trading
Source: WSJ
Commodities' seasonality
Source: Jay Kaeppel, SentimenTrader
